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8. Discussion 22 8 Discussion South Africa needs to decide on what its desirable future is with respect to its climate change science and technology capability. South Africa has a justifiable reputation as a leading player in the global climate change dialogue. The various official South African delegations to the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COPs) and summits have demonstrated leadership on a number of fronts, firstly in the rescue and full implementation of the Kyoto protocol, and more recently in the push for a new global deal on climate change. South Africa has also been a keen participant in the IPCC and a significant contributor to its scientific reports. However, the analysis presented in this report indicates that the scenario that currently best represents South Africa is one of medium political will, with relatively low scientific support and technology development capacity (See Figure 1).The rationalisation for this assessment is provided below. When considering the levels of favourability of the implementation environment, the following factors need to be considered: 1. The level to which the expressed political will is translated into policies with budgeted action plans to support their implementation. This is a combination of climate change specific policy as well as re- prioritisation of related policy to emphasise climate change issues; and 2. The re-organisation of the regulatory environment to facilitate the implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. When considering the criteria above, South Africa’s national implementation environment is at medium favourability (See Section 5).The national challenge is that while many important policy and implementation shifts have occurred, significant changes are still required, especially in relation to energy and transport policy and strategy. Having said this, important seeds have been planted in economic blueprints such as the National Government’s Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (AsgiSA), NIPF (DTI, 2008) and its associated implementation plans, and most recently the New Growth Path (Ministry of Economic Development, 2010). These provide promising avenues for mainstreaming climate change science and technology into policy, budgets, implementation and regulation in the future. Regarding national science and technology capacity, South Africa has world-renowned scientists that participate in the IPCC processes and other forums of the climate change dialogue. A more detailed examination of South Africa’s research outputs in the environmental fields indicates the following: • South Africa has a strong research base in the area of the environment, indicated by the fact that in three out of the seven environmental fields, South Africa produces more that 1% of the global output. If South Africa were an institution it would have been awarded an ISI Field Ranking in these three areas, namely Ecology (1,95%), Water Resources (1.59%) and Environmental studies (1.09%). The failure to attain 1% in the other four fields is both sobering and a cause for concern as this implies that South Africa is not a significant global player in these domains. • Figure 6 indicates that there is an increase in the number of publications, particularly in the last 10 years. However, Figure 7 indicates that the rate of increase in South Africa’s research outputs in the area of the environment were not sufficient to increase the share of South African papers in world literature. South Africa’s increased production of environmental publications in the last 10 years has matched the global trend. • When considering adaptation and establishing the infrastructure for mitigation success, the parameters that become important are the development of intellectual property (IP) and developing new knowledge in areas such as environmental engineering. The patent analysis indicates a very low South African presence in the climate change domain other than carbon capture and storage. In the environmental engineering category, South Africa produced 0.58% of the global output between the years 2004 - 2008, 5% of China’s output. Thus, climate change science and technology, as measured using broader environmental science and technology as a proxy, is relatively low.PDF Image | The Green Machine 4000
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