Unconventional Energy Resources

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Unconventional Energy Resources ( unconventional-energy-resources )

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Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review U.S. $40 mark and lower. However, these prices are expected to rise over the next few months. Accord- ing to global industry resource experts at Money Morning (2013), four factors could come into play to cause a major increase in the current price of U in the next few months. They are summarized and ex- panded in the following: Factor 1: Increasing Demand in Developing Mar- kets. The growth in nuclear power is centered on the emerging markets, especially China. Last summer, the Chinese cabinet reconfirmed the countryÕs commit- ment to its nuclear program, saying it would begin issuing new reactor licenses again after temporarily suspending them post-Fukushima. ChinaÕs renewed pledge to nuclear power means they could be adding as many as 100 nuclear reactors over the next two dec- ades, considering that China currently operates only 15 reactors. Its capacity is likely to climb to 40 million kW from nuclear by 2015, compared to 12.54 million kW at the close of 2011. Clearly, China will need to acquire substantial U fuel, which they have apparently been doing in the spot market recently. For instance, earlier this month RussiaÕs state owned Atomredmetzoloto and its Effective Energy N.V. affiliate, otherwise known together as ARMZ, announced they would buy at a premium the remaining 48.6% of Uranium One, which they did not already own. This effectively solidifies them as the worldÕs fourth largest U producer, concentrating U production even further into Russian control. It is not just China and Russia that are re- committing to nuclear power. Other nations such as the United Kingdom, India, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates are contemplating new nu- clear power plants as well, adding to the 435 nuclear reactors already providing base-load power world- wide. Today, 65 nuclear power plants are under construction in the world, another 160 new reactors are currently in the planning stages and 340 more have been proposed. Given this activity, the demand for U will increase but there is currently a U-supply (yellowcake) deficit and this alone should result in increasing prices for yellowcake and hence increased activity in exploration and plant start-ups. Factor 2: Growing Supply Deficit. Because of the post-Fukushima fallout, and the severely depressed yellowcake prices that followed, many U explorers and producers were forced to shelve development and expansion projects. This has led to a sizeable supply deficit. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA 2012a), total consumption of U was 176.7 million pounds (80 million kg) in 2011 and growing, while the 2012 total U output was 135 million pounds (61 million kg). That is an annual deficit of roughly 40 million pounds (18 million kg). Altogether, by 2020, the world demand would be short by 400 million pounds. Of course, as discussed in a previous paper (Campbell and Wiley 2011, pp. 317–323), resource estimates typically rise as frontier exploration discovers new ore bodies. Such activities require time to unfold and production from a new ore body may require up to 10 years before the first yellowcake can be produced for further processing into nuclear fuel pellets and rods. However, in situ development projects often require less time to go online than open-pit operations. In the interim, yellowcake prices are likely to rise and fuel alter- natives, such as Th, will emerge. Factor 3: Japan Reverses Course. As a result of considerably higher energy costs, Japan is now shifting its stance on nuclear power. JapanÕs current power grid, without nuclear power, has been expe- riencing rolling blackouts. Natural gas imports have risen 17%, and even coal imports are up 21%. According to Japan Today, newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicates that he is willing to build new nuclear reactors, which is a dramatic shift from the previous governmentÕs pledge to phase out all of the countryÕs 50 working reactors by 2040. This reality is likely to spread to Germany and other countries that panicked after the tsunami in Japan a few years ago. But when Japan announced that it was shutting down its 54 nuclear power plants, they erased 20 million pounds of U3O8 demand, and exacerbated the pricing situation by simultaneously selling 15 million pounds U3O8 into the market, primarily to China. Factor 4: Megatons to Megawatts. With the end of a program called Megatons to Megawatts this year, the fuel supply deficit will increase. The program was created in the wake of the cold war; the Megatons to Megawatts program is an agreement between the U.S. and Russia to convert highly enriched U taken from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons into low- enriched U (LEU) for nuclear fuel. The existence of this program alone covers a large portion of the worldwide annual deficit, with 24 million pounds (10.9 million kg) of U going to American utilities. In years past, up to 10% of the electricity produced in the U.S. has been generated by fuel fabricated using

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