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Billion cubic feet/day Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 U.S. Wellhead Prod. 71.3 70.8 72.6 All Shales 26.8 28.7 30.2 % of U.S. 37.6% 40.5% 41.6% American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Energy Minerals Division Table 14. Shale Gas Share of L48 Wellhead Natural Gas Production Source: LCI Energy Insight, G. Lippman, personal communication 11 May 2013 track of shale gasÕ production growth is to consult the EIAÕs Natural Gas Weekly (NGW) report issued each Thursday along with the latest data on natural gas storage. While this information is widely acces- sible, I have rarely encountered individuals inside or outside the industry conversant with the share achieved by shale gas production. Figure 13 is taken from the latest NGW at the time of writing. The data are provided to the EIA by Lippman Consulting, Inc. George Lippman, its president, also provided the data in Table 14, which calculate the shalesÕ share of L48 supply. The figures will not agree pre- cisely with alternative methods of calculation, such as relying solely on EIA production statistics, but they have the advantage of assuring that production figures are derived on the same basis. Just How Much Gas is This? On a gross basis, 30.2 Bcf/per day (0.85 bil- lion m3/day) is about 11 trillion cubic feet per year (Tcf/year) (312 billion m3/year) per day or 10 Tcf/ year on a dry basis (281 billion m3/year). Looking at EIA 2012 statistics, this amount is 1.42 times the natural gas consumed in Texas, California, and Louisiana; 2.4 times the amount of natural gas con- sumed in the entire residential sector; or 9.4% greater than all the natural gas consumed in electric power generation in 2012. Measured internationally, the dry gas total from U.S. shales is equivalent to 67% of all gas consumed in Russia, 2.4 times JapanÕs consumption (even after accounting for the 10.3% increase in JapanÕs natural gas consumption after the Fukushima Daiichi tsunami and nuclear disaster of March 2011); or 93% of all natural gas consumed in the five largest gas consuming countries in Europe (the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands). By any measure, the numbers are stunning. At this level of production, every dollar per thousand cubic feet saved by consumers from abundant natural gas adds up to direct savings of $10 billion/year. Second Great Jump in Resource The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) conducts biennial assessments of potential gas resources—prob- able, possible, and speculative resources, not reserves. Shale gas was not broken out in its 2006 assessment (Potential Gas Committee 2007), but it was esti- mated to be about 200 Tcf (5.7 trillion m3) at the time. In 2008, shale gas came onto the scene in the U.S. in a dramatic way, and the Potential Gas Committee (2009) reported shale gas resources of 615.9 Tcf (17.4 trillion m3) (all shale gas has been in the probable and possible categories), an increase of 416 Tcf (11.8 trillion m3). The estimate increased by only 71 Tcf (2 trillion m3) in 2010 (Potential Gas Committee 2011), reaching 686.6 Tcf (203 tril- lion m3). The latest (Potential Gas Committee 2013) assessment released April 9, 2013 recorded another spectacular jump of 386 Tcf (10.9 trillion m3), bringing the total resource attributed to shale gas to 1,073 Tcf (30.4 trillion m3). This is 53% of the Lower 48 States resource, excluding coalbed gas. The growth in the shale resource accounted for 85% of the growth in the overall national estimate. The biggest growth occurred in the PGCÕs Atlantic re- gion, which comprises the Marcellus shale, the Utica shale, other shales, and conventional resources. The Atlantic region resource more than doubled from 353.6 to 741.3 Tcf (10 to 21 trillion m3). As this progression clearly indicates, 2012 was a very important year in both confirming and extending the resource attributed to shales. Figure 29 charts these changes. The resource doubled in 8 years. The markets are responding—both immediately and in prospect for the coming decade. Commodity Price Collapse—Company Downgrad- ing Risks One effect of burgeoning production is the over- supply of 2012, which drove prices (e.g., Henry Hub) below $3.00/million Btu (the lowest prices of belowPDF Image | Unconventional Energy Resources
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