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Unconventional Energy Resources

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Unconventional Energy Resources ( unconventional-energy-resources )

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Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review Figure 29. PGC Resource Assessments, 1990–2012. Source: Potential Gas Committee, April 2013 slideset. Used by permission of PGC, July 24, 2013. $2.00 the first 2 weeks of April) and promoted record displacement of coal-fired generation by natural gas. This is potentially great for end-use consumers of natural gas and electricity and disastrous for natural gas producers. Its impact on power companies is mixed. Perhaps the most notable casualty of generally de- pressed natural gas prices, and thus power prices, is Energy Futures Holding Company, the firm created after the 2007 $45 billion buyout of TXU Corp., the largest generator in Texas. Its Achilles Heel was expectation of continuing high or rising natural gas prices—the same driver behind LNG import terminal developments at the time. Restructuring arrangements remain in limbo in mid-2013.16 16This deal was characterized as ‘‘the largest leveraged buyout in history.’’ A natural gas price of $6.15/million Btu was cited as the break even threshold. (New York Times, Feb. 28, 2012. Peter Latman: ‘‘A Record Buyout Turns Sour for Investors’’). Composed of Luminant, Oncor and TXU Energy, in February, 2012 the company reported a 2011 loss of $1.9 billion. Losses since 2007 have climbed to $18 billion (Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2013. Mike Spector: ‘‘Former TXU Seeks to Erase Debt’’). Its bankruptcy ‘‘would rank among the 10 largest in the U.S.’’. (Wall Street Journal, July 13, 2013. Tom Fowler and Cassandra Sweet: ‘‘At Texas Electric Firm, Users May Hold Key’’). The outstanding debt of $32 billion is comparable to the value of all U.S. gas shale production over a year (10 Tcf (0.28 trillion m3), $3.50/thousand cf, $35 billion). Dr. Michelle Foss of the University of Texas pointed out the problem of company downgrading, as follows: ‘‘It [natural gas] is not cheap - with a gas well you get 1/6 the Btu content for the same cost of a good black oil well and still less than one that is (hope- fully) NGLs rich. The best shale wells produce less than thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, and that is mostly dry Haynesville converted to make the books look good. We went through a list of companies that we expect to downgrade - there just arenÕt enough good liquids positions to be had and the ones that are out there are very expensive.’’ (Personal communication, January 24, 2013) Supply Momentum To make things worse on the upstream side, an added price-weakening consideration is the many bil- lions of dollars in yet-expended ‘‘drill carries’’ in the U.S. and Canada that will prop up exploration and production beyond the normal economics of drilling for some years to come. Drill carries are financial arrange- ments by which investors taking a stake in a shale pro- ducerÕs properties agree to shoulder some or all exploration expenses for a period of time, in effect

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