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bated and reaching peaks in 2012. Principally spurred by low gas prices, especially in 2012, it has also been spurred by the global boom in coal prices (climbing coal prices 2010 through mid- 2011) and other factors. It occurs via substitution ‘‘on the grid’’ of power from gas-fired combined cycle units, not by substituting fuel into coal steam generators. Peak monthly levels of this kind of fuel switching increased natural gas demand by as much as 8 billion cf (226 million m3) per day in May 2012, as calculated by Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. which prepared the analysis of monthly coal dis- placement/enhanced gas-fired generation shown in Figure 32. While natural gas prices recovered in 2013 and coal generation indeed increased, it is notable that very significant levels of switching continued throughout the first quarter of 2013. (Steve Thumb and Jeffrey Quigley, personal com- munication, May 15, 2013). On an annualized basis, high-efficiency gas-fired generation from 4 billion cf (113 million m3) per day is roughly equivalent to that derived from over 70 million tons (63.5 million tonnes) of high-quality coal—one of the primary reasons for the record decline in coal generation and U.S. CO2 emissions experienced in 2012 even as global emissions reached a new high (International Energy Agency 2013).17 Intermediate Term. Changes in the generation capacity mix (retirements, replacements, and new capacity additions) govern how much gas will be required for power generation in the long run. The principal impetus through mid-decade is the retire- ment of coal-fired capacity in response to continued competition from natural gas and investment hur- dles to meet mercury and air toxics standards. Metin Celebi of The Brattle Group emphasizes the vulnerability of coal plants to the remarkable levels of coal switching, pointing out ‘‘Low natural gas prices (spot and forward), result not only in coal-to- gas dispatch switching and but also worse projections for coal unitsÕ future energy margins.’’ (Personal communication, January 29, 2013). BrattleÕs assess- ment of possible coal plant retirements are summa- rized in Figure 3. The study (Celebi et al. 2012) indicates retirements of 59–77 GW of coal capacity by 2016, the range depending on the stringency of air 17This translation assumes gas-fired generation is 30% more efficient that coal-fired generation (Btu/kWh) and that the representative coal heat content is 12,500 Btu/lb. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Energy Minerals Division Figure 32. Monthly coal generation displaced by natural gas. Source: Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (http://evainc.com/publications/coal- to-gas-fuel-switching-report/).PDF Image | Unconventional Energy Resources
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