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Unconventional Energy Resources

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Unconventional Energy Resources ( unconventional-energy-resources )

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Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review toxics standards. To replace the generation from 59 GW, based in these unitsÕ 2011 output, would re- quire about 6 billion cf (170 million m3) per day. This allows one to get a sense of the possible boost in gas use in the power sector from pending coal retire- ments. Some of this replacement generation has al- ready occurred, contributing to the 2012 peaks of coal switching. Celebi et al. (2012) found that additional coal retirements from assuming $1.00/mmBtu cheaper natural gas are comparable to those which would be caused by imposing a $30/ton carbon tax. It is possible to conclude, then, that abundant gas is al- ready impacting coal power plants like a controversial carbon tax and without incurring the political expenditure of enacting such measures.18 Coal plant retirements are addressed again in a later section. The U.S. governmentÕs climate policy plays into the longer term outlook. This too was highlighted by Celebi et al. (2012): ‘‘EPAÕs greenhouse gas limits on new generation units to be less than 1000 lbs (454 kg) CO2 per MWh essentially block new coal units without carbon capture and storage (CCS). There are rumors that EPA will try to introduce limits for existing units as well...’’ (Personal com- munication, January 2013). This emission rate would make new coal plantsÕ emission profile similar to gas units, provided one overlooks the considerable par- asitic energy loss associated with CCS and the implications of lessening diversity of dispatchable generation—for neither issue is there a clear meth- odological path on how to take it into account. The principal policy change announced June 25, 2013 in the PresidentÕs Remarks on Climate Change (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/ 25/remarks-president-climate-change) and Presiden- tial Memorandum—Power Sector Carbon Pollution Standards (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/ 2013/06/25/presidential-memorandum-power-sector- carbon-pollution-standards) concern development of standards during 2014–2015 to be applied to existing power plants in accord with statesÕ imple- mentation in 2016. This confirms the direction of the rumors noted by Celebi et al. (2012), although it is too early to see the details. The policy direction is toward natural gas and renewables. The FERC has begun to address increasing gas dependency and deliverability risks at 18The Brattle natural gas price trajectory reaches􏰙$4.00/mmbtu in 2015, increasing to 􏰙 $5.25 in 2020. a regional level. This is being accomplished through a series of technical conferences under FERC aus- pices, according to Celebi et al. (2012). Early re- sponses of industry organizations to the announced climate policies include concerns that natural gas, so important in its downstream applications, not be unnecessarily hindered in its upstream capabilities. LNG Exports as a Source of Natural Gas Demand LNG exports are experiencing a period of exuberance with ultimate outcomes still uncertain. While a large number of export applications are before the FERC and U.S. Department of Trans- portation Maritime Administration (MARAD) (Fig. 33), only a fraction is considered likely to move forward as a result of high capital investment costs and financing challenges, competition between sources, international competition, and U.S. policies and policy responses to market developments over time. As of June 3, 2013, FERC counts 26 export terminals. Sixteen are proposed projects (13 U.S. proposed to FERC—18.29 billion cf (518 mil- lion m3) per day; three Canada—1.95 billion cf (55 million m3) per day), nine are potential projects (six U.S.—6.42 billion cf (182 million m3) per day, three Canada—3.445 billion cf (97 million m3) per day), and one project is before MARAD/Coast Guard (3.33 billion cf (94 million m3) per day). The total of proposed and potential capacity is 33.32 billion cf (94 million m3) per day (U.S.—27.93 bil- lion cf (791 million m3) per day; Canada—5.39 bil- lion cf (152 million m3) per day). New projects are still being announced. A single project to date is approved and under construction, Cheniere/Sabine Pass LNGÕs 2.6 billion cf (73 million m3) per day facility in Sabine, Louisiana. This brings FERCÕs grand total to 35.92 billion cf (1.02 billion m3) per day. Financial knowledge, experience, and trained skepticism are required to winnow the herd and set realistic expectations. Kyle Sawyer, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP, made a cautious observation: ‘‘The LNG export projects are one of the major potential drivers for demand growth in the next 5– 8 years. Although compliance with MATS (Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, discussed above) will certainly drive electric generation demand for nat- ural gas higher, it may not be enough to balance the supply surplus without a contribution from another consumption segment such as LNG. Current

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