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Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review expectations are for LNG exports to reach 6 bil- lion cf (170 million m3) per day by 2020 and it could go quite a bit higher if the DOE does not crimp investment plans.’’ (Personal communication, Janu- ary 30, 2013). The lure of selling LNG overseas and particularly to the Asian markets is the historical practice of linking LNG prices to oil. Whether this linkage can hold at its current levels is a matter of debate. LNG delivered into the United Kingdom and Western Europe commands much lower prices, reflecting his- torical pricing linked to a basket of fuels rather than to oil alone, to more competitively priced pipeline gas, and even to coal. Even incoming oil-linked gas from Russia has been under price pressure. Transactions compiled by FERC Market Oversight in Figure 34 illustrate price changes geographically over a year. Price fluctuation is a considerable investment risk for developers. South American Atlantic coast prices appear to be tracking oil linkage. Natural Gas and Regulations Hammer Coal in the U.S. The turndown of U.S. coal consumption is the most immediate impact of natural gas competition. On its heels are effects of MATS-driven coal plant retirements occurring 2015–2016 and into 2017. The turndown is of historic proportions (Fig. 35). Pro- duction in 2012 (1,016 million short tons; 921.7 metric tonnes) dropped to levels not seen since be- fore 1994 (1,034 million short tons; 938 metric ton- nes); consumption (890 million short tons; 807 metric tonnes) to levels not seen since 1989 (895 million short tons; 812 metric tonnes). Much has been said of booming U.S. coal ex- ports (126 million short tons (114 metric tonnes) in 2012) (Fig. 35). Prior peaks in coal exports (marked with dashed lines on Fig. 35) have rivaled those of today, namely 1981 and 1991 (113 and 109 million tons; 102 and 99 million metric tonnes). In June 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2013e) reported that March 2013 exports set an all- time monthly record of 13.6 million short tons (12.3 million metric tonnes). Prior peaks were recorded April–June 2013 of 12.5, 12.3, and 12.7 million short tons (11.3, 11.1, and 11.5 million metric tonnes). Metallurgical tonnages have slightly exceeded ther- mal, averaging 56% of exports in 2012, 57% during the first quarter of 2013. These have offered a bright spot to various coal producers; but financially, ex- ports have neither fully offset the domestic tonnage turndown nor the global thermal and metallurgical coal price-depressive effects from weak European economies and weakening Chinese growth. The sectorÕs performance and that of several U.S., U.S.-based, and international companies are shown in Figure 36. U.S. coal has been highly com- petitive in Europe due to far higher priced natural gas from Russia, other sources of pipeline gas (e.g., Norway, Netherlands, and N. Africa) and LNG. But the coal sectorÕs financial performance continued to suffer. Both Peabody, with Australian production, and BHP Billiton, with Australian and other global production, are exposed to ChinaÕs slowdown. As a multi-commodity energy, iron ore, metals and pot- ash producer, BHP BillitonÕs slippage has been mitigated by the portfolio effect of this mix. How does the coal industry itself view these events? Recent investor presentations, while aimed at Wall Street to respond to events without under- mining confidence, gauge effects from the wave of retirements, shifts among producing regions and longer term international prospects. Alpha Natural Resources (2013) confirmed that 212 coal units, mostly in the eastern U.S., will be retiring or dis- continuing to run on coal due a number of different environmental regulations. These changes amount Figure35. U.S.Coalproduction,consumption,andexports 1973–2012. Data source: U.S. Energy Information Admin- istration Monthly Energy Review (http://www.eia.gov/ totalenergy/data/monthly/index.cfm). Accessed April 25, 2013. 1 Million short tons = 0.907 metric tonnes).PDF Image | Unconventional Energy Resources
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