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Unconventional Energy Resources

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Unconventional Energy Resources ( unconventional-energy-resources )

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to 32.8 GW.19 John Eaves (2013), President and Chief Executive Officer of Arch Coal, Inc., de- scribed the extent of retirements as 29% of units by 2018, 13% of capacity and only 7% of coal con- sumption. Boyce (2013), Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peabody Energy, underscored the winning production regions, the Powder River Basin (PRB) and the Illinois Basin, projected to serve a 20% growth by 2017 from plants using these coals in a combination of new generation, expanded use from existing plants, and plants switching sour- ces to these coals. They see retirements as primarily centered in the southeast U.S. and they drew attention to the prospects of greater overseas sales of these coals from both the Gulf region and from such proposed terminals as the Gateway Pacific Terminal slated to handle as much as 48 million short tons per year of Powder River Basin coal. 19Regulatory drivers listed are: Mercury and Air Toxics Stan- dards, Maximum Available Control Technology standards, the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (a reference to pollution ‘‘trans- port’’ regulations—due to court ruling EPAÕs Clean Air Interstate rule, CSAPRÕs predecessor, remains in effect), Coal Ash regula- tions and New Source Performance Standards. Replace a Coal Plant with New Natural Gas Units? The KnifeÕs Many Edges of this Decision Many decisions will be made over just the next few years about keeping older coal generating units after adding high capital cost environmental controls or replacing these with new, relatively flexible high- efficiency natural gas combined cycle units. Many studies, including those cited here, have indicated how many retirements are likely and what the implications are for a surge in natural gas use (e.g., on the order of 6 billion cf (170 million m3) per day—greater than industrial use and on par with some judgments about LNG exports). John Dean of JD Energy offers observations about the factors at play. His work pits one unknowable, the price of natural gas, against another unknowable, the timing and stringency of carbon regulations/legisla- tion—shedding light on how solid are the computer analyses we rely on to gauge even near-term changes in the natural gas market (Personal communication July 19, 2013). ‘‘The extraordinary fickleness of such decisions is exemplified by First EnergyÕs HatfieldÕs Ferry coal units in southwest Pennsylvania, which received an injection in excess of $500 million dollars to retrofit flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) scrubbers on the plantÕs three 576 MW units in 2009–2010. On July 9, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Energy Minerals Division Figure 36. Selected U.S. and international coal producer performance showing weekly changes from January 13, 2012 to July 16, 2013. Source: Google Finance, (http://www.google.com/finance). Accessed July 17, 2013. S&P Standard and Poors, Dow j. Dow Jones.

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