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Geothermal Research and Tech IEA

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the global financial crisis. However, this slight lull was overwhelmed by the extraordinary ~5% increase in primary energy demand in 2010, with associated CO2 emissions of 30.4 Gt, an increase of 5.3% over 2009 (Birol, 2011). This exceptional annual growth is now raising some concern about the possibility of achieving the global climate change objective of limiting the temperature increases this century to 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels (ibid.). In addition, an unacceptable 20% of the world‘s population, ~ 1.3 billion, still remain without access to electricity. Figure ES1 World total primary energy supply by fuel (in Mtoe) for the period 1971-2009 (IEA, 2011). Further challenges arose in 2010, including: the increase in fossil fuel subsidies that promote wasteful consumption increased to about US$ 409 billion; the global energy intensity again worsened as it did in 2009, despite the great efforts many countries are making to increase energy efficiency; and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa cast doubts about the reliability of global energy supplies. Compounding these issues is the shift of government focus away from energy policy caused by the problems of financial integrity of several countries. Assuming that recent government policy commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, termed the New Policies Scenario, energy demand grows by 30% between 2010 and 2035 as a consequence of a global population increase of 1.7 billion people and global economy growth of 3.5%/yr. About 90% of the population and energy demand growth occurs in non-OECD countries, with China becoming the largest energy consumer and India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Middle East energy consumption rates growing even faster than in China. Though the demand for all fuels increases, the fossil fuels share decreases from 81% in 2010 to 75% in 2035, however, natural gas does increase its share in the global mix. Renewable energies, mainly hydro and wind, provide about 50% of the new installed power capacity. The outcome of the New Policies Scenario leads to a temperature increase of >3.5 °C, compared to the Current Policies Scenario, which results in a temperature increase of ≥6 °C. Neither of these scenarios is sufficient. To achieve the 2 °C limit as formulated in the 450 Scenario (450 ppm CO2-eq greenhouse gas concentration), 80% of the total energy related CO2 emissions permissible by 2035 are now ―locked-in‖ by the existing capital stock of power plants, buildings, factories, etc. Furthermore, if no new action is taken by 2017, all of the CO2 emissions allowed by the 450 Scenario up to 2035 will be generated by the energy related infrastructure then in place. Consequently, only extremely costly ―zero-carbon‖ power plants, factories and other infrastructure could be added between 2017 and 2035 (Birol, 2011). 3

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