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01ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW 1 - 9 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW 01 1 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011. 2 Figure 1 shows shares of final energy consumption, which is different than shares of primary energy consumption. For an Beijing, personal communications with REN21, May and June 2011; Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Annual Report 2010–11 (Delhi: 2011); Morse Associates, provided by Fred Morse and Kurt Klunder, personal communications with REN21, March, April, and May 2011; Ruggero Bertani, Enel Green Power, S.p.A, personal communication with REN21, 21 April 2011; International Journal on Hydropower and Dams (Wallington, Surrey, U.K.: various editions); Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), “Clean Energy - Analyst Reaction, Investment in Large-hydro - How Large?” Table 1, 12 January 2011; Lau Saili, International Hydropower Association (IHA), London, personal communication with REN21, March 2011; Werner Weiss, Irene Bergmann, and Gerhard Faninger, Solar Heat Worldwide 2007: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2005 (Gleisdorf, Austria: IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme, May 2007); Werner Weiss and Franz Mauthner, Solar Heat Worldwide: Markets and Contribution to the Energy Supply 2009 (Gleisdorf, Austria: IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme, March 2011); F.O. Licht, 2011; IEA, Medium Term Oil and Gas Markets 2011 (Paris: June 2011). explanation of the differences, see Sidebar 1 on page 21 of REN21, Renewables 2007 Global Status Report (Paris: 2007). Figure 1 is based on the following data for 2009: (a) global final energy consumption of 8,340 Mtoe including traditional biomass, which is derived from the 8,428 Mtoe for 2008 from International Energy Agency (IEA), Key World Energy Statistics 2010 (Paris: IEA/OECD, 2010), and then adjusted (downward) for 2009 using the -1.1% growth rate in global primary energy for 2009 found in BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 (London: June 2010); (b) traditional biomass final consumption of 800 Mtoe, which is based on the 746 Mtoe (2008) in the residential sector of develop- ing countries per IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 (Paris, 2010), p. 342, which likely undercounts traditional biomass because much of this use is in the informal or non-commerical sector, adjusted upward for final consumption of charcoal in the informal sector as given in Chapter 8 of IPCC, Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (2011); this 800 Mtoe of traditional biomass final consumption is less than previ- ously estimated in previous editions of the Renewables Global Status Report from other sources;; (c) hydropower of 3,272 TWh and 282 Mtoe for 2009 from BP, op. cit. this note; (d) nuclear of 2,698 TWh and 233 Mtoe from BP, op. cit. this note; (e) non-hydro renewables for 2009 from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 for non-hydro power generation (607 TWh) and for biofuels (52 Mtoe); and from REN21 Renewables 2007 Global Status Report figures using capacity increases and additional industry data. Figures estimated for 2009 are: biomass power 190 TWh, wind power 370 TWh, geothermal power 70 TWh, solar and other power 40 TWh, solar hot water 390 petajoules (PJ), geothermal heat 330 PJ, biomass heat 4,600 PJ, ethanol 1,660 PJ, and biodiesel 460 PJ. So total non-hydro renewable power generation for 2009 is calculated as 670 TWh (an estimate which is slightly higher than the BP figure of 607 TWh, but which makes no difference 4 The low end of this range is for hydropower and geothermal power, although it should be noted that hydropower is growing from a relatively large base; the high end is for geothermal direct heat. Fossil fuel consumption growth rates are for period 2005 through 2010, with average annual growth rates over this period for oil at 0.8%, natural gas 2.6% and coal 3.4%, based on data from BP, op. cit. note 1. Note that single-year growth rates in 2010 were higher, with oil at 3.1%, natural gas 7.4%, and coal 7.6%. in terms of final shares), and total final energy from non-hydro renewables is calculated as 236 Mtoe. All traditional biomass sup- ply is considered final energy consumption for purposes of this analysis. For heat from modern biomass, there is some ambiguity as to what constitutes “final energy consumption.” Typically, it includes the heat content of steam and hot water produced from central biomass boilers and heat-and-power plants, but analyses can vary depending on how building-level heating boilers are counted. Few global estimates exist for modern biomass heat consumption, including district heating supply and direct industry use. The IEA gives 4,000 PJ heat from modern bioenergy, per IEA, Renewables for Heating and Cooling (Paris: IEA/OECD, 2007), and Johansson and Turkemburg give 730 TWh(th), or 2,600 PJ final heat in 2001, per T. Johansson and W. Turkemburg, “Policies for Renewable Energy in the European Union and Its Member States: An Overview,” Energy for Sustainable Development, vol. 8, no. 1 (2004), pp. 5–24. Figures from the IEA and other sources suggest that biomass for final heat consumption in industry is substantial (although there are few published studies on this topic), and therefore renewable heating/hot water could be higher than shown in Figure 1. Further discussion of the different methods for calculating share of energy from renewables can be found in Eric Martinot et al., “Renewable Energy Futures: Targets, Scenarios and Pathways,” Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 6 Figure 3 from BP 2011, op. cit. note 1, Excel supplementary data tables. Global electricity production according to BP was 21,325 TWh in 2010; hydro was 3,428 TWh; nuclear was 2,767 TWh; and other (non-hydro) renewables were 701 TWh. Global power capacity estimate of 4,950 GW is based on IEA’s 4,500 GW installed in 2007, adjusted for an average growth rate of 3% for 2008–2010, per IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: IEA/ OECD, 2009), p. 102. World electricity generation estimated at 20,700 TWh in 2009, based on 2008 generation of 20,269 TWh from IEA, Electricity Information 2010 , op. cit. note 5, adjusted by 2.1% growth for 2009 (assuming same growth rate as 2008). Hydropower accounts for an estimated 16% of global electricity generation (and other renewables 2%), from IHA, Advancing Sustainable Hydropower, 2011 Activity Report (London: 2011). vol. 32 (2007), pp. 205–39. 3 Growth rates and Figure 2 based on the following sources: 8 Figure 4 based on data in Table R4; see sources for Figure 2, op. cit. note 3; also based on IEA, Renewables Information 2010 (for OECD biomass power capacity) and Electricity Information 2010, both op. cit. note 5; WEC, op. cit. note 5; submissions from report contributors; historical databases going back to 2005 report edition as maintained by Martinot. historical PV data from Paul Maycoc k, PV News, various editions, and from REN21, Renewables 2005 Global Status Report (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 2005) current data from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics Until 2015 (Brussels: 2011); Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update 2010 (Brussels: 2011); BTM Consult – A part of Navigant Consulting, World Market Update 2010 (Ringkøbing, Denmark: March 2011; World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), World Wind Energy Report 2010 (Bonn: April 2011); Ma Lingjuan, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), 9 Capacity shares based on 2009 nameplate capacity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Annual Electric Generator Report,” Generator Y09 File, “Exist” tab, EIA Form 860, www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/eia860.html, viewed 13 June 2011; proposed additions (total, biomass without MSW and hydro without pumped storage) for 2010 from EIA, “Annual Electric Generator Report,” Generator Y09 File, “Proposed” tab, EIA Form 860, 2010; 2010 geothermal additions from Geothermal Energy Association (GEA), Annual U.S. Geothermal Power Production and Development Report (Washington, DC: April 2011); wind additions from American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), “U.S. Wind Energy Industry Finishes 2010 with Half the 95 5 Half and 194 GW based on 92 GW of fossil capacity added, and 5 GW of nuclear capacity added from UNEP, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment (Nairobi: 2011), p. 25, and on renewable energy data noted in this report. See Table R4; data based on the following: sources provided in note 3; IEA, Renewables Information 2010 (Paris: 2010) (for OECD biomass power capacity); IEA, Electricity Information 2010 (Paris: OECD, 2010); WEC, Survey of Energy Resources 2009 (London: 2009); submissions from report contributors; historical databases going back to 2005 report edition as maintained by Eric Martinot. 7 See Table R4 for 2010 data; increase over 2009 based on data for total renewable electric capacity including small hydropower in 2009, less the small-scale hydro total, from REN21, Renewables 2010 Global Status Report (Paris: 2010), Table R4, with adjust- ments for restated solar PV and biomass data for 2009. RENEWABLES 2011 GLOBAL STATUS REPORTPDF Image | GLOBAL STATUS REPORT Renewables 2011
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