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as high natural gas prices and advanced technology which avoids the need for resistance heating during cold weather, have combined to make ASHPs much more attractive in colder climates. In fact, some manufacturers have introduced “cold climate” air source heat pumps that are suitable for virtually any climate.1 Such technology is expected to continue to advance, and we can expect to see far more air source heat pumps used in cold climates in the future. Heat pumps have historically comprised 20‐25% of U.S. unitary space‐conditioning equipment sales (Figure 1‐1). However, in the past five years heat pump market share has risen to approximately 35% (AHRI, Appliance Magazine). Figure 1‐1: ASHP Heat Pump Market Share of Total Unitary A/C and Heat Pump Sales 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: AHRI 2005 (data for 1973‐2005), Appliance Magazine 2008 (total shipment data for 2006‐ 2007). Note: ASHP data for 2006‐2007 is projected by NCI based on the average annual growth rate for 2001‐2005 of 10%. Our process starts with a comparison of the fundamental economics of each technology in the residential and commercial markets and the likely national impacts. While GSHPs are generally more energy efficient compared to the best‐ available ASHPs, national impacts also depend on likely market penetrations of each alternative. We also consider other benefits and barriers that are not reflected in the economic analysis, including lessons learned from global 1 See for example http://www.mrslim.com/UploadedFiles/Resource/H2i_brochure.pdf. Products are designed achieve 100% capacity down to 5 °F outdoor and 75% capacity down to ‐13 °F, with a COP >1 even at those low temperatures. U.S. Department of Energy 11 % of Total ShipmentsPDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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