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Figure 3‐8: U.S. Census Regions Source: EIA website 3.5 Scenarios for U.S. Market Projections We selected three scenarios under which to project the national energy‐saving potentials of GSHPs: • “Carbon Tax plus R&D” Scenario: DOE invests in successful cost‐ reduction R&D and a carbon tax increases utility rates, including electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane • ‘Successful R&D” Scenario: DOE invests in successful cost‐reduction R&D, but no carbon tax is imposed • “Business as Usual” Scenario: No successful R&D and no carbon tax imposed. None of the three scenarios includes the impacts of financial incentives such as tax credits or utility rebates, consistent with our objective of investigating the fundamental economics of GSHPs compared to alternatives. As illustrated in Appendix B, EIA projections for electric rates under three scenarios (high price, low price, and reference) show very little variation in projected rates through 2030 (adjusted to 2006 dollars) [AEO 2008]. EIA projections also vary little within each census region. However, the EIA does not U.S. Department of Energy 39PDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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