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3.12 Projected Market Penetration Many relationships have been developed that project market penetration of energy‐saving technologies as a function of an economic parameter—usually simple payback period. One such market‐penetration relationship that is commonly used in DOE analyses was developed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. (see Figure 3‐37). The market‐penetration curves suggest that payback periods of five years or longer lead to ultimate market penetrations under 10 percent. We consider a five‐year payback as a “threshold” payback for widespread market adoption of energy‐saving technologies. Payback periods of ten years suggest that applications are limited to niche markets. Figure 3‐37: Market‐Penetration Relationship for Energy‐Saving Building Equipment Source: ADL 1995 Of course, actual market penetration will depend on many factors that are not specifically accounted for by simple payback period. For space‐conditioning equipment, these factors may include: • Percent increase in first cost (independent of payback) • Degree to which well known brands are represented in the market • Product warranties offered • Success of marketing and promotional campaigns or branding • Non‐energy benefits such as comfort (uniformity of indoor temperature, humidity control, etc.) or noise • Degree of disruption associated with installation (for retrofits) • End‐user desire to project a “Green image”. U.S. Department of Energy 67PDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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