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7.3.2 Residential Fundamental Economics and Market Potential—Electric Baseline Technology Table 7‐1 shows approximate ranges of simple payback periods for GSHPs and advanced ASHPs compared to typical‐efficiency ASHPs. Table 7‐1: Approximate Simple Payback Periods for Representative Single‐Family Home (~3000 sq. ft.)—Typical‐Efficiency ASHP Baseline Scenario Business as Usual Successful R&D R&D plus Carbon Tax Advanced Technology AdvancedASHP TypicalGSHP High‐Efficiency GSHP Advanced ASHP TypicalGSHP High‐Efficiency GSHP Advanced ASHP TypicalGSHP High‐Efficiency GSHP Midwest South 6‐10 8‐12 15‐20 8‐15 7‐11 25‐35 10 ‐ 20 10 ‐ 20 35 ‐ 40 Same as “Business as Usual”a 6‐10 6‐8 20‐25 10 ‐ 20 10 ‐ 15 30 ‐ 35 4 ‐ 5 5 ‐ 6 9 ‐ 10 5‐8 4‐6 15‐20 8 ‐ 15 9 ‐ 12 25 ‐ 30 West 10‐20 15‐35 25‐40 10‐25 20‐35 7 ‐ 10 9 ‐ 20 15‐30 a) Successful R&D assumed to impact the GSHP ground loop only, so this scenario won’t change the economics of the advanced ASHP. Generalized market‐penetration curves suggest that payback periods of five years or longer lead to ultimate market penetrations under 10 percent. Payback periods of ten years suggest that applications are limited to niche markets. GSHPs approach threshold economics for widespread adoption in the northeast and Midwest if R&D efforts lower ground‐loop installed costs and/or a significant carbon tax is imposed on electricity. The economics of advanced ASHPs are, however, as good or better compared to GSHPs. And, our analysis does not account for the improved heating‐season performance of advanced ASHPS currently being developed and introduced for cold‐climate applications, which would improve the economics of advanced ASHPs. Projected payback periods are sensitive to installed‐cost estimates. However, using installed‐cost estimates from another researcher would result in even longer payback periods. Both GSHPs and advanced ASHPs could see cost reductions as sales volumes increase. For example, GSHPs could benefit from streamlined business models for ground‐loop installation. ASHPs could also benefit from increased manufacturing economies of scale. Payback Range by Major Census Region (Years) Northeast U.S. Department of Energy 83PDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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