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The technical potential primary energy savings in commercial buildings is roughly 0.6 Quad, of which about XXQuad is associated with public grade schools. However, the results of our analyses of a representative small office building application (about 6000 sq. ft.) generally show calculated payback periods over ten years, except in New England. At least three factors contribute to the longer payback periods compared to the residential example. • We used average commercial electric rates in our analysis, which are lower than residential rates • EIA cost estimates used show installed costs per unit capacity for commercial products to be similar to those for residential applications • Space‐conditioning loads for commercial buildings are generally less weighted to the heating season than loads for single‐family residences, and GSHPs provide a disproportionate benefit during the heating season. Various industry experts report, however, that real‐world economics tend to be better for commercial or institutional buildings compared to residential applications. We expect that real‐world pricing generally results in a cost reduction per unit capacity as capacity increases; however, we have no representative installed‐cost data to confirm this. While we did not analyze a natural‐gas furnace and conditioner baseline, if the economics are similar to the typical ASHP baseline, GSHPs could ultimately achieve roughly 10 percent penetration of this market. This would result in on the order of 0.05 Quad national primary energy savings. 7.4.1 Zero-Energy Buildings Space‐conditioning loads for ZEBs will generally be less weighted to the heating season than loads for conventional commercial buildings. This results because internal heat loads (which are generally fixed) become a greater percentage of the overall space‐cooling load when increased insulation and reduced infiltration lower overall space‐conditioning loads. Since GSHPs provide a disproportionate benefit during the heating season, ZEBs using GSHPs may not see the same percentage reduction in space‐conditioning loads as do conventional buildings. On the other side, ZEBS will be able to utilize smaller‐capacity heat pumps, which will lower the first‐cost barrier. U.S. Department of Energy 88PDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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