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8.1.2 Potential for ASHP Cost Reductions and Heating-Season Performance Improvements Evaluate the potential for first‐cost reductions for advanced ASHPs , including potential economies of scale. Include ASHPs developed specifically for cold climates that improve heating‐season efficiency, as poor heating‐season performance is the “Achilles’ Heel” of ASHPs. While cold‐climate ASHPs are currently available from a limited number of suppliers, the products are generally expensive, designs may be immature, and performance/reliability may not be sufficiently demonstrated. 8.1.3 Detailed Performance and Energy-Benefits Modeling Since we did not conduct detailed performance modeling, our investigation does not consider: • Potential improvements in economics due to using variable electricity rates, such as: o Commercial: Demand charges and time‐of‐use rates o Residential: Current/upcoming time‐dependent rate structures • Benefits of reducing peak electric demand. Understanding the peak demand reduction benefits of GSHPs is essential to justifying utility rebates that could substantially accelerate market adoption of GSHPs. We recommend detailed performance modeling to estimate these impacts, which could significantly improve the economics of GSHPs. In addition, as noted above, the national benefits modeling described in this report was necessarily based on many estimates and simplifications, as the project scope did not permit detailed models such as hourly load modeling. A more rigorous modeling process would better quantify the potential national benefits of GSHPs and could better target DOE activities to accelerate market adoption. 8.1.4 Schools and Other Government Buildings Schools and other government buildings (with assistance from energy services companies) have proven to be attractive, early market niches for GSHP installations. We did not specifically examine these opportunities in this analysis. A 1998 DOE study found GSHP systems in schools to reduce energy use for space conditioning by 25‐50% compared to traditional systems, with payback periods of 2‐8 years (MacMillan 2007). Our analysis of technical potential has produced similar results, and we estimate that U.S. public schools (K‐12) have the potential to save 0.03 Quad collectively by using GSHPs for space‐conditioning. We recommend further analysis, documentation, and U.S. Department of Energy 91PDF Image | Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
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