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Energy and Development in South America

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Energy and Development in South America ( energy-and-development-south-america )

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6 | CYNTHIA J. ARNSON AND JESSICA VARAT INTRODUCTION | 7 When Bolivia lost the War of the Pacific (1879–1884), for example, it lost not only access to the sea but also territory (seized by the Chileans) rich in nitrates, sul- fur, and copper. Thus, a proposal in 2003 to export Bolivian liquefied natural gas through Chile sparked riots in Bolivia, contributing to the sequence of events that forced the resignation of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada. President Evo Morales’ 2006 nationalization of the hydrocarbons sector affected not only foreign consumers of Bolivian gas—but also deepened political polarization within Bolivia, as regional governors (prefects) vie with the state for control of natural gas revenues. The nationalization has led Brazil and Argentina, which have sustained robust lev- els of economic growth, to look for substitutes for Bolivian gas. Walter Spurrier of Grupo Spurrier notes that while oil production makes up 20 percent of Ecuador’s Gross Domestic Product, a significant portion is devoted to domestic consumption rather than export. [Ecuador has the fourth largest reserves in Latin America, after Venezuela, Brazil, and Mexico, but relatively speaking, its proven reserves are small: less than half of Mexico’s and less than 5 percent of Venezuela’s.]12 Hence, the country may face a time when a decline in production could signify the end of exports. Since the discovery of oil in the 1960s and the beginning of production in 1972, the government has sought to satisfy the public’s expectation of an immediate benefit from oil, through subsidies, increases in pub- lic sector employment, and wage increases unrelated to improvements in produc- tivity. The result, Spurrier argues, has been a loss of competitiveness for productive activities outside the oil sector. Left- as well as right-wing governments have allowed short-term political interest to prevail with respect to the development of the ener- gy sector, contributing to stagnation and a loss of profitability in the state sector. In addition, the discovery of oil in the eastern Amazonian region of Ecuador has prompted a disorganized process of settlement, as well as conflicts between the cen- tral government, local communities, oil companies, and environmental NGO’s over control of oil income and the preservation of fragile jungle areas. Spurrier con- cludes that the existence of oil resources in Ecuador has led to complacency regard- ing the design of policies conducive to development, a classic example of the so- called “Dutch disease.” David Mares of the University of California, San Diego, concurs that both eco- nomic as well as geological factors should lead South American countries toward greater energy integration in support of economic growth. He identifies numerous core challenges, however, to increased energy cooperation. These include the lack of medium- and long-term investment capital, the priority given by some govern- ments to domestic markets over exports, the lack of independent regulatory regimes, and disputes over the fair distribution of energy rents. Mares also emphasizes the importance of constructing and strengthening institutions to safeguard against cor- ruption and rent-seeking behavior. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are grateful to Latin American Program interns Sheree Adams, Angela Granum, Jonathan Karver, Smith Monson, and Marisha Peña, and to Josette Altman of FLAC- SO, for their assistance with many aspects of this publication and the conference on which it was based. We are also grateful to our colleague Paulo Sotero, director of the Wilson Center’s Brazil Institute, for facilitating our inclusion of the Brazilian case and to consultant Roger Tissot for comments on an initial draft. NOTES 1. The global oil production figure is from the British Petroleum Statistical Review 2008, “Global Oil Production Table,” and refers to barrels per day in 2007. Not including the Orinoco Belt, Venezuela’s proven oil reserves at the end of 2007 were more than quadruple those of the United States, and, in the Western Hemisphere, second only to Canada. “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil and Gas Journal, December 24, 2007, quoted in Mark P. Sullivan, Clare Ribando Seelke, and Rebecca G. Rush, “Latin America: Energy Supply, Political Developments, and U.S. Policy Approaches,” Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, April 23, 2008, p. 3. 2. Mark P. Sullivan et. al, op. cit., p. 3. 3. Danna Harman, “Venezuela’s oil model: Is production rising or falling?” Christian Science Monitor, May 31, 2006; and Juan Forero, “Venezuela Set to Assume Control of Its Oil Fields,” Washington Post, May 1, 2007; cited in Mark P. Sullivan and Clare M. Ribando, op. cit., p. 9. 4. The figure is from UNICA, the Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association. See Joel Velasco, presentation at the Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC), “Brazil-U.S. Biofuels Cooperation: One Year Later,” Washington, D.C., March 4, 2008. 5. Chris Kraul, “Petrobras’ global quest for power,” The Los Angeles Times, February 11, 2008, p. C1. 6. Oxford Analytica, “Latin America: Summit Fails to Deliver Gas Solutions,” February 25, 2008; and Oxford Analytica, “Latin America: Natural Resources Dominate FDI Flows,” May 15, 2008. 7. See Francisco Rojas in this volume, p. 13 ; and Mark P. Sullivan, et. al., 2008, op. cit., p. 4. 8. Hal Weitzman, “Ecuador ‘was right to revoke Occidental licence,’” Financial Times, May 21, 2006.

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