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10 Forests and energy BOX 2 Biofuels for transport in Brazil Worldwide, only about 1 percent of the consumption of transport fuels comes from liquid biofuels. Brazil is a notable exception to this average. During the first global oil crisis in 1975, Brazil launched a national biofuel programme leading to the large- scale production of ethanol from domestic sugar supplies. More than 90 percent of all cars produced and sold in Brazil are “flex”, that is equipped with a motor that can run on ethanol, petrol or mixtures. Brazil has recently launched a global campaign to promote biofuels as a viable alternative to fossil fuels for transport. In Brazil, biofuel from sugar cane sources is more competitive than petrol, when the oil price is above US$35 per barrel. Bioethanol from corn in the United States is, by comparison, competitive at an oil price of US$55 per barrel, and bioethanol in the European Union requires an oil price of US$75 to $100 per barrel to be competitive (Worldwatch Institute, 2007). The success of biofuels in Brazil is largely a result of the high productivity of sugar cane and the suitability of the feedstock for efficient conversion to ethanol. Approximately 190 000 ha of sugar-cane plantations are established every year, mostly in the southern parts of the country (FAO, 2007c). Brazil is expected to continue to be the major biofuels exporter worldwide (Global Insight, 2007). Higher fossil fuel prices and government policies and programmes in support of the development of alternative energy will be factors in the competitiveness of renewable energy sources. In spite of national and international efforts, however, forecasts do not show the global share of renewable energy increasing significantly. A minor expansion from 7.4 to 7.6 percent is all that is expected by 2030 (EIA, 2007). The World Alternative Policy Scenario presented in the World Energy Outlook 2006 (IEA, 2006) shows how the global energy market could evolve if countries around the world were to adopt policies and measures currently under consideration for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and improving energy supply security (Table 3). In the scenario, the share of renewables in global energy consumption remains largely unchanged while the share of traditional biomass falls. Hydropower production will grow but its share will remain stable, while the shares of other renewables (including geothermal, solar and wind) will increase most rapidly, but from such a low base that they will remain the smallest component of renewable energy in 2030. With the inclusion of traditional biomass, heating and cooking will remain the principal uses of renewable fuels over the next 25 years. The power sector, however, is expected to lead the global increase in renewable energy consumption (IEA, 2004). This sector accounted for a quarter of global renewable energy consumption in 2002, but its share is projected to rise to 38 percent by 2030. Currently, less than 1 percent of fuels used for transport are renewable. According to projections, this share will rise to 3 percent over the next 25 years. The overallPDF Image | Energy supply and demand
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