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18 Forests and energy TABLE 4 People using traditional biomass (millions) Region/country 2004 2015 627 5 777 453 171 521 26 60 2 640 2030 720 5 782 394 180 561 27 58 2 727 575 4 740 480 156 489 Brazil 23 Rest of Latin America 60 Total 2 528 Source: IEA, 2006 FUTURE ENERGY CHOICES – KEY ISSUES Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa India China Indonesia Rest of Asia Future energy choices will depend on a number of factors. The significance of different energy sources varies in relation to the key objectives in energy policy. Differences in carbon emissions are of importance to climate change, whereas supply location is of importance to energy dependence. Also of importance are the future price of fossil fuels and the magnitude of efforts to provide alternatives. The weight given to each of these factors and the degree to which different policy objectives compete will, to a large extent, determine future energy consumption. Oil price In early May 2008, oil was selling at US$126 per barrel following a steep rise from below US$20 per barrel in 1999 (figure 13). While IEA has projected that oil prices will be considerably lower than this level during most of the next 20 years, uncertainty over whether new production capacity will compensate for declining output at existing fields may mean an increase in oil prices prior to 2015 (IEA, 2007a). The price of oil and other fossil fuels is likely to considerably affect the adoption of renewables. Falling prices are less likely to encourage policy makers to promote renewables, although in developing countries, in particular, rising oil prices may also forestall investment in renewables by dampening economic growth. In this respect, developing economies are especially sensitive to fluctuations in global energy supply and demand. The International Energy Agency estimates that a US$10 increase in the price of oil can reduce GDP growth by an average of 0.8 percent in Asia, and up to 1.6 percent in the region’s poor highly indebted countries. The loss of GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa can be even higher, in some countries reaching 3 percent (IEA, 2004). The effects of oil price on the development of renewables and the global distribution of consumption is likely to be convoluted and issues such as trade and technology transfer will be of great importance.PDF Image | Energy supply and demand
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