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20 Forests and energy Despite the focus on oil and transportation in recent years, the significance of coal in future energy use and its role in climate change cannot be overlooked, especially if coal gasification processes become widely used in the production of transport fuels (Perley, 2008). Coal, by far the most polluting of the fossil fuels, is also of increasing importance – particularly in Asia where the highest energy demand increases are predicted. Of all fossil fuels, coal is the greatest contributor of climate change gases, surpassing oil in 2003. It provides a similar proportion of total world energy as gas, but emits twice the amount of carbon dioxide (IEA, 2006). Since the supply of coal is not as restricted as oil, an increase in the share of energy supplied by coal seems inevitable, notwithstanding environmental legislation. Coal reserves are more widely dispersed than oil and gas. Large reserves of coal suitable for power generation are located in Australia, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, South Africa and the United States. Growth projections for coal use point to the most dramatic increases occurring in Asia and the Pacific. China and India together are estimated to account for almost three-quarters of the increase in coal demand in developing countries, and two- thirds of the increase in world coal demand (IEA, 2003). The considerable proportion of greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation – 17.4 percent annually – must also be taken into account. Efforts to ensure that production of bioenergy does not result in losses of terrestrial carbon through forest removal are critical if climate change objectives are to be achieved. Recent research has suggested that clearing of grassland or forest to produce biofuels may result in losses of carbon that will take centuries to recapture (Searchinger et al., 2008; Fargione et al., 2008). Energy dependence Dependence on energy imports is another key factor in determining the extent to which renewables and bioenergy are likely to be promoted. The degree of fuel import dependency in different regions of the world and the proportion of exports in total merchandise trade are given in Table 5. All regions outside the Near East have a high level of importation, and many regions export more than they import, indicating that some substitution could take place. Asia’s imports considerably exceed exports. Europe and North America show smaller discrepancies between imports and exports, which are accounted for in part by current moves to promote biofuels. TABLE 5 Share of fuels in total merchandise by region Region North America Central and South America Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Africa Near East Asia World % exports 7.1 20.2 5 43.9 51.9 73 5.1 11.1 % imports 11.7 15.6 8.5 9.8 10.2 4.3 14.7 11.1 Source: WTO, 2004PDF Image | Energy supply and demand
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