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II. IEA GEOTHERMAL R&T PROGRAMME In 2002, the total global primary energy use was about 430 EJ (1 EJ = 1018 J), with renewables providing about 13%, and about 17% of the global electricity production. Current estimates indicate a total worldwide technical potential of renewable resources of about 7,500 EJ/year. The geothermal potential suitable for future development estimated to be about two-thirds of this, or 5,000 EJ/year [1 EJ = 1018 J] (WEA, 2000), with economic exploitation providing about 150 EJ/year for electricity generation and 350 EJ/year for direct uses (Bertani, 2003). Consequently, renewable energy, and geothermal in particular, is capable of making a considerable contribution towards meeting the world’s current and future energy needs. As of 2004, twenty-four countries were utilizing geothermal energy to generate electricity, with a total installed capacity of 8,900 MWe (Bertaini, 2005) and a growth rate over the past 25 years of about 200 MWe/year. Approximately 56.8 TWh, or about 0.35% of the 2002 global electricity production of 16,000 TWh was generated. In addition, geothermal direct heat use was reported in over 70 countries, with a worldwide installed capacity of about 27,800 MWt (with total energy use of 72,622 GWh) in 2004, having doubled almost every five years since 1995 (Lund, et al., 2005). Direct heat use is also expected to continue growing into the future, especially with the installation of geothermal heat pumps. Additionally, in 2004, geothermal electricity generation saved the equivalent of 14 million tonnes of oil (Mtoe) and reduced CO2 emissions by about 47 million metric tonnes (Mt), and geothermal direct use about 14 Mtoe with reduced CO2 emissions of 45 Mt. Given the potential and current technology, it is believed that a 45% increase in geothermal electricity generation is possible between 2000 and 2010. The new growth would be expected mainly from existing suitable resources, particularly in the developing countries of Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa where the demand for electricity is growing rapidly. In addition, there are very good opportunities for increased direct use in Central and Eastern Europe where resources occur near to demand areas. Similarly, the IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 “Reference Scenario” (for OECD countries) forecasts a geothermal electricity production growth rate of 4% per annum during the period 2000-2010, with non- hydro renewable electricity production increasing from 2% in 2000 to about 4% in 2010. The “Alternative Policy Scenario” indicates that if all OECD countries’ policies being considered to promote renewables are pursued, non-hydro renewables could provide about 6% of the total generated electricity in 2010. The IEA GIA can play a significant role in helping attain the abovementioned ambitious targets. 1.3 References Bertani, R. (2005). Worldwide geothermal generation 2001-2005: state of the art. Proc. World Geothermal Congress 2005, Antalya, Turkey, 24-29 April 2005. Bertani, R. (2003) What is geothermal potential? IGA News, No. 53, July-September 2003, 1-3. Lund, J.W., Freeston, D.H. and Boyd, T.L. (2005, advanced copy). Worldwide direct uses of geothermal energy 2005. Proc. World Geothermal Congress 2005, Antalya, Turkey, 24-29 April 2005. USBC 2004. United States Bureau of the Census, International Database. Update 30 September 2004. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html WEA 2000. World Energy Assessment: energy and the challenge of sustainability. Ed. J. Goldemberg, United Nations Development Programme, UNDECOSOC, WEC, 2000. IEA Geothermal R&T Annual Report 2004.doc 15PDF Image | Geothermal Energy Annual Report 2004
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