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Assessment of Potential and Promotion of New Generation of Renewable Technologies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Commercial technologies readily available from technology suppliers’ order books are silicon-based and CdTe thin film photovoltaics, parabolic trough concentrating solar power plants, biogas upgrading to natural gas quality, certain geothermal power as well as geothermal heat technologies. Further research and development is needed here in order to enhance economic competitiveness with other energy technologies. Offshore wind, several thin film photovoltaics technologies, linear fresnel concentrating solar power and certain geothermal power technologies are in the demonstration or pre- commercial phase. This implies the technological readiness, but lack of certain commercial attributes in the market. The other technologies addressed here are in earlier stages of innovation. All technologies not yet commercially available need further research and development as well as market introduction and deployment support in order to ensure commercialisation. Technical deployment potential The technical deployment potentials of solar, wind, biomass and geothermal energies are differing widely between member states and regions. Offshore wind potentials are located essentially in the North Sea and the Mediterranean, concentrating solar power potentials in Southern Europe, and ocean energy along the Atlantic and North Sea coastlines. Geothermal and biomass potentials are spread over all EU member states. Biomass potentials are more limited than solar and wind potentials, the latter combined being large enough to supply the electricity consumption to 100%. Biomass potentials are higher for combined heat and power supply than for dedicated electricity production or for liquid biofuels including second generation biofuels such as BTL or lignocellulosic ethanol. Achieving the 10% biofuels goal for 2020 of the EU requires either importing biofuels or going significantly beyond 10% of the arable land in EU 27 for energy crops, which has been assumed here as a limit. For imported biofuels, notably palm oil, sustainability is strongly debated. Energy industry, markets and barriers Market deployment The following figure gives an overview over the overall (technical) market potential vis-à- vis the current market penetration in Europe. HIGH Market Potential LOW BOOM MARKET MASS MARKET Photovoltaics (PV), offshore wind, and concentrating solar power (CSP) provide the highest market potential (sorted by decreasing potential). At the same time, these energy technologies are yet exploited to less than 1% of their market potential only. Large-scale deployment in Europe is still to come for them. Market deployment is already at 40-75% for bioenergy. Markets and Industry Structures In Europe, renewable energy technology developments have mainly been initiated by small or start-up companies, which have grown rapidly and/ or have merged. Large corporations have entered by acquiring some of the young, established players. Offshore wind Concentrating solar power Photovoltaics (1) Bioenergy (2) Heat & Power Geothermal power Ocean power EARLY MARKET Transport Fuel NICHE MARKET LOW Market Deployment HIGH (1) Roofs plus 0.1% of the total land area in EU 27 (2) Residues plus 10% of the arable land in EU 27 IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 PE 440.278 xvii LBST 2010PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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