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Assessment of Potential and Promotion of New Generation of Renewable Technologies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ The use of renewable energies from European sources shifts money streams from today’s import of primary fossil fuels like crude-oil, natural gas and uranium to local beneficiaries. European farmers may especially benefit from this. With the agro-energy market developing, they can operate on a more diversified basis. 2.1.2. Offshore Wind The development of wind energy is an authoritative example of the evolutionary nature of energy technology development8. The quest for a revolutionary ‘step-change’ increase of wind power turbine capacity failed on all lines, e.g. in the case of the German GROWIAN wind converter (1983 to 1987). The ‘lesson learnt’ from such drawbacks by major industrial stakeholders significantly damped enthusiasm and commitment to the further wind R&D with established players in the 1980ies. It was then new-comers like Enercon, Fuhrländer, Nordex, NEG Micon, Vestas, et al., that brought wind energy technology through the risky ‘death valley’ of economics through continuous R&D efforts, verified by and with feedback from pilots, demos and early/niche markets. In fact, the industry was predominantly shaped by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), both established – i.e. growing out from a lurking mechanic-engineering in the case of Vestas (today one of the top 3 suppliers in the field) – as well as start-up. Some 6 to 8 years ago established energy and technology players GE and Siemens entered the market by buying in young but established companies in the field. When entering the wind market as a ‘second mover’ these major players could draw from their • high capitalisation, • high degree of creditworthiness, • established worldwide customer base, • global supply, production, and service chain, • experience to stem large-scale turnkey projects, and • local presence in major world region, especially in the fast growing BRIC countries. According to [Ender 2009], the major suppliers of wind energy converters in 2008 were: 1. Vestas(DK) 2. GEEnergy(US) 3. Gamesa(ES) 4. Enercon(DE) 5. Suzlon(IN) 6. Siemens(DK) Between 2003 and 2008, installed wind energy capacity worldwide grew at an average of 24.8% annually according to [BTM 2009]. The expected annual growth rate worldwide is an estimated 15.7%. The near future will show how technology developers like Enercon – that are currently ‘going international’ – can hold their pole position vis-à-vis established industry players that are gaining ground in the market place. 8 An indicator for this evolution is e.g. the development of rotor diameters. According to Ender (2009b), the predominating rotor diameter with wind converters deployed in 1985 was < 16m; 1990/30m; 1995/40m; 2000/50m; since 2003/60-90m; near future > 100m. An analogous development can be observed for the development of tower (hub) heights. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 39 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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