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Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy ____________________________________________________________________________________________ A game-changer in this respect could be the development of novel wind converters and their deployment offshore. Larger company sizes are a natural fit to the typically very large-scale schemes of offshore ventures. While onshore wind energy is going slower on the learning curve (most evidently dealing with challenges of a seamless integration into the electrical grid), there is still significant technological development potential for offshore wind technology, including foundation, erection, reliability, serviceability, and grid integration issues. Today, the production of power from wind energy at good onshore sites costs about as much as the electricity from a newly built, high-efficiency coal power plant comprising the latest emission reduction technologies that is running on hard coal. Subject to the development of fossil fuels, wind power will successively become cost competitive with further fossil-based power generation means. This will be a tipping point, triggering another wave of technology developments in the field of grid integration technologies (like energy transport, storage, and distribution) as this fluctuating energy supply will have to be matched economically with the energy demand (including demand-side energy management options). 2.1.3. Photovoltaics Photovoltaic is a heterogeneous market with a plethora of cell technologies on the one side facing a multitude of applications on the other side, such as • portable power (typically a few mW to a few W), e.g. for consumer electronics; • household (off-grid) PV systems (typically several W to several kW); • commercial and industrial (roof-top or building-integrated) PV systems (typically two to three-digit kW); • open space (brown and green field) PV system (typically one to two-digit MW). Despite the large market potentials with rooftop-mounted and building-integrated PV systems, the installation of PV systems in the open space has been a major driver in bringing down the cost of PV systems: (a) For the time being, it’s the most cost-effective way of producing power from photovoltaics for reasons of low transaction costs and higher inverter efficiencies; and (b) deploying large volumes at a time, the cost sank along the learning curve at an accelerate pace from which the whole PV market is benefiting. To date, more than 90% of PV modules are integrated into installations with grid- connection. [EPIA 2008] see the share of off-grid applications to double by 2020 only. The largest off-grid market is to be found in the ‘sun-belt’ of the southern hemisphere. There is a demand by some 2 billion people that yet have no regular access to electricity. However, this market is most challenging to address commercially. Analogous to the development of wind power, the technological progress of photovoltaics resembles a long history of incremental, evolutionary, and continuous improvements in terms of increasing the overall efficiency9, the lifetime and lowering the attributed costs. Historically, thin-film PV technologies had been predominantly used in portable applications. In 2007, only 12.6% of PV cells were thin film according to [EPIA 2008]. With the shortage of silicon (Si) as a feedstock for multi and mono-crystalline Si-cells in the second half of the last decade, thin-film gained significant market shares in former Si- domains, especially with very large-scale PV systems. 9 See e.g. the history of champion cell efficiencies for various PV technologies from [NREL 2009], p 3. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 40 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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