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Assessment of Potential and Promotion of New Generation of Renewable Technologies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Today, the thin-film market is dominated by a single manufacturer, namely First Solar (USA), producing CdTe modules. No second company has yet been as successful in managing the complex process chain of large-scale, high-throughput, and cost-effective thin film production. In the long run – i.e. in the decades to come and far greater markets still to be developed – PV technologies that do not require rare earth elements such as tellurid (Te) will dominate though. [JRC-Ispra 2009] expects that in 2015 approx. 1/3 of all PV modules deployed are thin-film. Historically, Japan has been a major market for PV installations. According to [EPIA 2010], with the introduction of the feed-in tariff (FIT) in Germany (EEG:2000) and Spain (RD 1578:2008), these two markets made up more than 2/3 of global PV installations in 2008 alone (representing 89% of European demand). With the introduction of a support cap in Spain, the Spanish market however collapsed in 2009. In 2008, Europe represented 81% of the global demand for PV modules. This situation will prevail in the near future. The USA, Japan and China are expected to catch up. China is to play a double role in the global PV market. Within a few years, it has become a major producer of silicon-based PV modules. China is also developing renewable energy initiatives, e.g. the "Golden Sunlight" programme in order to exploit their vast solar and wind energy potentials. China is thus set to become a major user of PV systems, too. However, according to [Hug 2010] China-based production is likely to outstrip domestic demand by far still for the near to mid-term future. China’s export orientation will thus prevail and so does the downward pressure on PV module prices. Major suppliers as of 2009 are listed in Table 11 Table 11: Major photovoltaic cell producers according to [Hirshman 2009] Company Capacity end of 2009 [MW/yr] Planned production 2009 [MW/yr] Q-Cells (DE) 1,615 1,000 First Solar (US) 1,127 1,000 Suntech Power (CN) 1,000 800 Sharp (JP) n.a. 600 Yingli (CN) 600 550-600 JA Solar (CN) 800-1,000 500 Gintech (TW) 560 360-460 SunPower (CN) 574 450 Trina (CN) 350-550 350-450 Motech (TW) 555 415 Kyocera (JP) n.a. 400 Sanyo (JP) n.a. 300 CSI (CA) 570 300 Schott Solar (DE) 355 295 Solar World (DE) 450 290 The PV market is a global market. As long as ‘grid parity’ is not achieved, the most dynamic markets so far have evolved where FIT have been introduced (and lost market dynamics when FIT engagement was reduced accordingly). IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 41 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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