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Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Crossing the so-called ‘grid parity’ will be a game changer in the energy market given the high market potential of PV technologies worldwide. Due to the higher comparative costs vis-à-vis the bulk power market, ‘grid parity’ for end-users is estimated to be achieved in the first half of this decade. ‘Grid parity’ will by no means make power markets or the power grid void as only some 20-40% (in the mid-term future maybe some 50%) of the electricity produced on the roof- top can be consumed ad-hoc and on-site without installation of local power storage facilities. The resulting lower utilisation of electricity infrastructure components like electricity meters, grid connection as well as the need to increased load-levelling means may result in increasing specific electricity costs. This in turn will make further renewable energy technologies cost competitive and further increases the market potential to locations with less favourable conditions. At rising fossil fuel and biomass feedstock prices, residential solar power (like building efficiency) could be increasingly regarded as a means to increase the personal energy independency and energy supply security. Guaranteed PV system operational lifetimes of 25+ years successively attracts home-owners and investors interested in long-term, low risk investments as could already be observed in the looming financial crisis. Solar systems also add value to the property. Like owning one’s own real estate, solar systems are a way of hedging financial risks for the time to come after retirement. All this being increasingly understood, innovative market players despite traditional electricity supply companies may identify and seek these new opportunities. Against this background, the short and mid-term PV market outlook worldwide as estimated by the European PV Industry Association – [EPIA 2010] – seems to be reasonable, not least in order to also fulfil renewable energy targets in Europe. Table 12: Global annual PV market outlook according to [EPIA 2010] *estimated 2.1.4. Concentrating Solar Power This technology requires high shares of direct irradiation from sunlight. European markets for the installation of concentring solar power (CSP) are thus the EU Member States in the Mediterranean region. Notably, Turkey provides one of the largest CSP potentials on the northern Mediterranean region. Turkey is set to become a major market in the future, once technology ripeness has been proven with the CSP plants currently being erected and brought into operation in Spain. This is certainly also subject to fiscal incentives and regulatory conditions evolving in Turkey. Capacity building in Turkey could facilitate this process and raise confidence between the EU and Turkey at the same time. Technical cooperation in the wider context of a common EU foreign energy policy could furthermore increase EU’s security of energy supply through diversification of the energy resource basis. Year 2008 2009* 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* Moderate scenario [MW] 5,559 4,620 6,000 7,540 9,610 12,250 Policy-driven scenario [MW] 6,802 10,790 13,810 17,385 22,325 IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 42 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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