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Assessment of Potential and Promotion of New Generation of Renewable Technologies ____________________________________________________________________________________________ The effect of national renewables support measures on the carbon price has been analysed, inter alia, by [Harrison et al. 2005]. They find that a green or white certificate scheme would reduce the CO2 allowance price and that it would increase the overall cost of meeting the CO2 cap. As to the effect on the allowance price, the [European Commission 2008] estimates that the 20% GHG reduction commitment of the EU would require a carbon price of €49 per tonne of CO2 in the absence of renewables policies. With the introduction of policies to achieve the 20% RES target and a related decrease in the demand for allowances, a carbon price of €39 per tonne of CO2 would achieve the same GHG reduction target. [Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2010] similarly concludes that the 2020 price of EU carbon allowances falls as the share of renewable electricity rises. However, in view of the economic downturn due to the financial crisis, their price projections are much lower than those by the [European Commission 2008] reaching €21 per tonne of CO2 at a 33% share of renewables in power generation in 2020 (this share is in line with the overall EU 20% RES target). As to increasing overall costs of meeting the CO2 cap, they result from the fact that renewables support substitutes some relatively high cost abatement options (i.e., renewables) for some lower-cost CO2 abatement options that would have been chosen by EU ETS participants otherwise (e.g., fuel switching) [Harrison et al., 2005]. It is also worth noting, that the renewables support schemes reduce the volume of emissions reductions needed by the EU ETS sectors. In turn, changes in exogenous factors such as the business-cycle have a much greater impact on this volume requirement and, by implication, volatility of the carbon price increases. While it is true that the EU ETS can only unfold its full effectiveness as part of a global emissions trading system (thus avoiding “carbon leakage”), the view that additional renewables targets and support mechanisms may be useless or even harmful within the framework of an EU-wide emissions cap neglects some key systemic characteristics of the EU ETS as well as several other key benefits of renewable energy sources. First, a binding renewables target is expected to set the necessary investment framework to foster a sustained growth in demand for RES technology equipment. Many RES technologies are not yet commercially mature and will require government intervention to take off. A strong long-term policy commitment by the EU and its member states to stimulate the production and market uptake of renewable energy will stimulate European “green” technology providers to consolidate and strengthen their first-mover competitive advantage in the global market. Large-scale deployment of renewables will drive down costs of these technologies as learning rates are typically much higher than for non-renewable generating technologies. The [International Energy Agency 2008], for example, makes the case that renewables (except wind) experience significant capital cost reductions for each doubling of capacity, such as 15-20% for photovoltaics (PV) and 20% for solar water heaters. This justifies initial support policies for low-carbon technologies. Second, there are several inherent benefits associated with renewable energy sources. They not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also “promise strategic improvements in the security of supply, reduce the long-term price volatility to which the EU is subjected as a price-taker for fossil fuels and could offer an enhanced competitive edge for the EU energy technology industry” [European Commission 2006]. Furthermore, renewable energy sources “facilitate improvement in the economic and social prospects of rural and isolated regions in industrialised countries and help meet basic energy needs in developing countries” [ibid.]. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 75 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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