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Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Third, expected effects of national RES policies have been taken into account by member states when the aggregate EU ETS cap was defined. Emissions budgets for Phase III of the EU ETS (starting from 2013) were established according to targets and expectations of future emissions. This includes a multitude of individual emissions reduction measures – also in sectors not covered by the EU ETS, such as agriculture and renewable energy sources. Unintentional effects on the price of EU carbon allowances are thus only possible if future renewable electricity production reduces GHG emissions by an amount larger than anticipated [see, e.g., Kemfert and Dieckmann 2009]. On the other hand, a more stringent EU ETS after 2013 may facilitate corporate investments into RES, and incentives should be created to do so (e.g. using revenues of auctioning). Fourth, even if the power sector achieves its indicative 33% RES target by 2020, the impact on the EU ETS will be moderate and there will still be a “significant need for abatement under the EU ETS” [Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2010] because emissions are expected to stay significantly above the EU ETS cap over the whole of Phase III (although they will be lower than without the renewable energy target). While the power sector’s emissions are expected to remain roughly constant, the bulk of the emissions increases will come from ”new” sectors and in particular from aviation (ibid.). Finally, the link between the EU ETS and the Kyoto Protocol’s Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows EU member states to meet part of their GHG emissions reductions in countries outside of the EU. Even in the absence of an international climate change deal, the revised EU ETS provides for the possibility to count cheaper emissions cuts from abroad towards domestic targets. However, if the additional renewables target leads to a lower carbon price, the incentive for using such flexibility mechanisms with third countries will decline, leading to higher domestic emissions reductions than without the RES target. In addition, it should be noted that the economic recession had a considerable impact on EU GHG emissions and that the current EU 20% reduction target may be substantially easier to reach than assumed before the crisis. [Amann et al. 2009], for example, show that by 2020 EU GHG emissions could be almost 14% lower than projected pre- crisis (i.e., in 2008). Compared to 1990 emissions levels, this translates into a reduction of over 16%, which brings the EU relatively close to its target without further climate measures. Due to declining GHG emissions during the economic recession, the need to stabilize and increase investments in RES is even larger than before. From this perspective, the additional renewables target can be seen as an instrument to ensure real progress towards a low-carbon economy. There are thus several reasons for supporting renewable energy sources, and reducing GHG emissions is just one of them (albeit a very important one). The broad range of merits associated with renewables justifies measured, dedicated public support for RES penetration in the European energy mix. This conclusion in favour of an active green innovation policy is also stressed by [Aghion et al. 2009], who find that climate change policy needs to combine a carbon price with high initial clean-innovation R&D subsidies. IP/A/ITRE/ST/2009-11 & 12 76 PE 440.278PDF Image | Policy Department Renewable Technologies
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