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In light of these forces, we’ve scored the relative market appetite for each application as follows: Wood Biomass Market Appetite Idea Rationale With a 40-year commercial track record, there are over 215 commercial geothermal projects operating in 24 countries. Medium Landfill Gas Medium Food & Beverage Production Medium Metals Manufacturing Medium Medium The economics of industrial waste heat recovery are improving as energy prices continue to rise and heat-to-power systems become cheaper to produce Refineries and Chemical Plants Glass & Ceramics Fabrication Medium Cement Medium Production Simple Cycle Low Land Given the difficulty in producing systems small enough for land transport, Transportation Low this application has seen low traction to date Marine Transportation Some ORC companies are pursuing solar thermal applications but it is still a small portion of the market (~1% of installed power output) Remote Waste Heat / Pipeline Compressors Low Geothermal High Medium Medium Increasing efficiency in off-the-grid applications is very appealing, but there are few examples of successful marine projects to date Solar Thermal Some ORC companies like ORMAT are pursuing remote applications but it currently represents the smallest portion of the market Table 13. Potential Applications for Organic Flash Cycle and Market Appetite One of the biggest challenges that the OFC must consider is the market landscape around incumbent technologies. In particular, the ORC and its modifications are not only commercial, economical, and perform a very similar function, but are supported with substantial resources from very sizeable companies (GE, UTC, Ormat, etc.). Industry experts not only had questions around the efficiency of the OFC in comparison to proprietary, industry- leading ORC technology, but also around financeability, reliability, and safety challenges of an OFC system. For instance, one geothermal developer noted that “owners can finance Ormat all day long, every day. No bank is going to worry about it” and that TAS’ technology “has the advantage of using proven equipment, and being very simple.”88 There must be an “economic or practical justification” compared to what else is out there today. Given the efficiency and cost benefits discussed in the Value Proposition section above, we believe this risk is manageable, particularly if a large, well-branded player brings OFC into its portfolio under a licensing arrangement. 26PDF Image | ElectraTherm Commissions 10 Green Machines
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