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Sale Cycle ORC systems are being installed in the U.S. and abroad, and the installed base will continue to grow until the OFC is ready for commercialization. Given the high capital costs and long lifetimes (20+ years) of ORC Systems, it is unlikely that a customer would retrofit an existing ORC system with the OFC. While each new ORC installation reduces the overall market potential for the OFC, there is still ample room in the market for both technologies. In fact, the ORC market is far from reaching its full potential today. For example, in the U.S., only 10% of the potential market (roughly 7-10 GW of power capacity available for low-grade heat applications) has been captured by ORC.106 Even with a growing number of ORC installations, a large part of the market will still be ripe for the OFC. In conclusion, we believe the technology and market risks described above are manageable and should not pose a significant barrier to the development of the OFC. Conclusions The Organic Flash Cycle is a conceptual stage technology that is an improvement over the prevalent Organic Rankine Cycle technology which is most prevalent in the marketplace. Based on the fact that the OFC is an incremental improvement and that there is currently no testable prototype available, we have ascertained that the appropriate path to commercialization is through partnering with an incumbent player with access to technology development resources as well as distribution channels to mass market the OFC. In light of our conversations with prominent industry players such as General Electric, Ormat Technologies and TAS Energy we remain optimistic about the potential for the technology licensing approach to establish a firm path towards commercialization. Ultimately, the value proposition offered by the OFC - a 9% incremental gain in efficiency at a 5% lower cost with mostly readily available components – is appealing to many incumbent companies that want to improve their existing technologies. By investing time and resources to prove the technology and build a prototype through the recommended action items we have outlined in this report, we believe Dr. Ho and LBNL can maximize the potential for the commercialization of the Organic Flash Cycle. 37PDF Image | ElectraTherm Commissions 10 Green Machines
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