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2010, p. 5.3). DOMLEC had expected to restore the Padu plant, but there is no indication that the restoration has yet been completed (DOMLEC 2008, p. 17). There are also differing forecasts of short-term capacity expansion for Dominica. The Energy Unit presentation indicates plans for a 7.5-MW “supplementary” plant with financial assistance from the Government of Venezuela (Fadelle 2009, p. 34), but DOMLEC does not discuss such a project (DOMLEC 2008, p. 60). In any case, Nexant forecasts that Dominica will need additional capacity starting in 2012, and assumes this would be another 5 MW of diesel (Nexant 2010, pp. 5.9, 13.2). The additional diesel capacity would be necessary to provide adequate supply if there are delays in the geothermal program. 3.3.4 Electricity Prices Dominica has one of the highest costs of electricity in the Caribbean, peaking at an average of U.S. $0.4567 per kilowatt-hour in 2008, with the fuel contributing nearly half of this cost (DOMLEC 2008, p. 17). Electricity consumers face costs based on a two-tiered unit tariff and a per-unit fuel surcharge. Residential customers pay approximately U.S. $0.26 per kilowatt-hour for the first 50 kWh per month, and U.S. $0.30 per kilowatt-hour per month thereafter. The fuel surcharge directly passes DOMLEC’s cost of fuel to the consumer, with an average of U.S. $0.1273 per kilowatt-hour from 2004 to 2009, peaking in August 2008 at U.S. $0.2513 per kilowatt-hour (Fadelle 2009, pp. 10–11). Residential costs also include a negligible fixed monthly fee of less than U.S. $1 per month (Posorski & Werner 2009, p. 62), and a VAT (value-added tax) of 15% applied to the cost of use in excess of 100 kilowatt-hours per month (DOMLEC 2007). Production costs are not available, but in their discussion of geothermal energy, Posorski and Werner use a generation cost of 0.18 € per kilowatt-hour for comparison (Posorski & Werner 2009, p. 62). Including a fuel surcharge of U.S. $0.1672 per kilowatt-hour (Fadelle 2009, p. 11), and an exchange rate of U.S. $1.47 per Euro (€) (OANDA 2010)—both typical for 2008—leads to an estimated production cost of U.S. $0.4318 per kilowatt-hour from DOMLEC’s distillate plants. This represents nearly a doubling of the cost since 2003, when generation costs averaged U.S. $0.21 per kilowatt-hour (Loy & Farrell 2005, p. 11). Given that oil prices peaked in 2008, current generation costs are expected to fall somewhere between these two extremes. 3.3.5 Electricity Demand Dominica has nearly 100% electrification, thanks to past rural electrification programs funded by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), USAID, and OAS (Loy & Farrell 2005, p. 12). Electrical demand for the nation has slowed since the mid 2000s as a result of high oil prices, and is expected to grow modestly by 2.7% annually in the future (Nexant 2010, p. 6.3). Figure 13 shows the electricity consumption over the past 30 years. 42PDF Image | Energy Policy and Analysis Caribbean
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