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Table 3: An estimate of the ranges of the biomass energy potential as found in the literature and the values that are used in this report (EJ/yr) Residues Low High Africa and Middle East 4 11 Asia 13 32 Oceania 1 1 Latin America 2 25 Non-OECD Europe and FSU 3 7 North America 7 36 OECDEurope 2 5 World 32 117 Energy Crops Assumed Low High Assumed 7 15 69 38 23 25 96 53 1 0 32 16 15 2 66 34a 5 48 112 80 17 15 60 38 5 9 15 12 73 162 450 271 A very recent study by Doornbosch and Steenblik 2007 arrives at much lower estimates for the potentials from energy crops (~110 EJ/year), with relatively high potentials estimated for Latin America and Africa, but low estimates for Europe and North America and negative potentials es- timates for Asia. They have included also considerations in terms of water stress to determine the estimate for land availability and productivity and include the shortage of food production result- ing in negative potentials. The estimates for technical potentials from residues by Doornbosch and Steenblik (135 EJ/year) are higher than the high estimates used in this study. There seem to be a difference in categorization for this these numbers are not included. The overall estimate by these authors (245 EJ/year) is, thus, somewhat higher than the low estimates in the earlier studies considered here but the focus is more on residues and the regional availability is considered much lower in Asia including Central Asia. This study is not included in the overview as also some so- cial and environmental constraints are included in their considerations. However it does indicate the in reality the potential for energy crops can be expected much lower than the technical poten- tial estimated by the other studies. 3.2.2 Costs of primary biomass Whereas there is a large number of studies available assessing the technical potential of primary biomass on a global scale, limited studies are available assessing costs on a global scale. On a re- gional scale cost data are available for OECD Europe, Eastern Europe and the US, e.g. van Dam 2007; Siemons, 2004; Milbrandt, 2005. The cost of biomass from energy crops on a global scale depend on local climate and soil condi- tions has been assessed for four different scenarios by Hoogwijk, 2004. Here, the results from these scenarios have been taken, assuming that all the biomass crops potentials are used for elec- tricity, the standard process being a woody short rotation crops conversion to power in BIGCC plants. The cost estimates of the energy crops for the four scenarios are presented in Table 4 14PDF Image | REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network
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