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3.3 Wind onshore 3.3.1 Technical potential The use of wind power is increasing rapidly over time. Currently, there is about 74 GWe installed capacity over the world and a further increase is expected. The technical potential of wind on- shore depends on wind resources, land available for the installation of wind turbines and the amount and rated power of wind turbines installed per unit of land area (horizontal power den- sity). A typical wind turbine for onshore production is at present around 2 MW of size and has a hub height of around 80 m. With increasing turbine sizes, the hub heights increase and apart from cost reduction, this also gives access to higher wind speeds. On a global scale there are various studies that have assessed the technical potential of wind en- ergy onshore, e.g. Hoogwijk et al., 2004, WEC, 1993, UNDP/WEC 2000, Fellows, 2000. Al- though all use a similar approach, there are some minor differences between the approaches. The results obtained by Hoogwijk, et al., 2004 are used here because it is the only study covering the globe, and the results and estimates can be easily converted using more recent numbers. The main assumptions for this estimate are given in Table 7. The wind speed is converted to output in terms of full-load hours using a linear relation. The land available depends on land use change. A suit- ability factor was applied for each land use type, e.g. assuming tropical forest to be excluded, high availability for agricultural and grassland area and limited availability for regular forest ar- eas. In addition, urban areas and natural reserves have been excluded. At these suitable areas, a power density of 4 MW/ km2 was assumed. The output of a wind turbine was calculated assuming a wind turbine with a size of 1 MW. Here we assume that in 2050 the wind turbines have on av- erage a higher capacity and therefore a higher hub height (100 m). This results in higher wind speeds and therefore an increased output when assuming a roughness length of 0.1 m of 10%. The basis of the estimate by Hoogwijk et al., 2004 is the Climate Research Unit (CRU) meteoro- logical data. This database is not specifically constructed for wind energy analyses. The CRU data, however, is currently the only set of globally available data. The CRU wind data are ob- tained from measurements at 10 m height and extrapolated to hub height. In general higher reso- lution assessment with correction for terrain, obstacles and roughness will give higher wind en- ergy resource potentials. This was demonstrated for Mexico, Vietnam, North Africa and North China Morroco, Egypt, Madagascar, Mongolia, North and Northwestern China (Hamlin 2007). The respective regional estimates for East Asia are, therefore, very conservative although, for some places, e.g. Honduras, higher resolution data give lower estimates. 3.3.2 Electricity Costs The future costs of wind onshore are mainly (around 80%) determined by the turbine costs. They therefore depend on the development of wind turbines, the output per turbine or per unit of land 18PDF Image | REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network
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