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3.4 Wind offshore 3.4.1 Technical potential and Electricity Costs Offshore wind power is one of the upcoming renewable energy technologies. By far most of the over 1000 MW currently installed capacity is located in OECD Europe. Technical potential of wind offshore depends on the wind resources offshore, the competition for other functions at sea (e.g. fishery, oil and gas extraction, natural reserves) and the depth of the sea close to the shore. The distance to the shore that is included in most potential assessments is around 40 km and a representative depth that is used as a maximum is around 40 m. Various studies have assessed the technical potential for offshore wind (e.g. Leutz, et al., 2001, Fellows 2000, Siegfriedsen et al., 2003). However, only Fellows, 2000 presents the assessments on a global level (except Norway and Canada) including cost estimates for the timeframe to 2020. For use in this study, data for Canada have been added (Tampier, 2004) and the data have been corrected for the technological development for 2020 to 2050. This was done by increasing the potential figures from the year 2020 with 30%. This can largely already be achieved by e.g. in- creasing the power density from 8 MW/km2 to 10 MW/km2. The main assumptions from the original study are represented in Table 8. Table 8: Main assumptions on the technical performance and costs of offshore wind energy. Please note, the total output and costs has been corrected for the longer term Power density Turbine size Hub height Wind farm efficiency Distance to shore Maximum depth Specific investment costs (pending on the depth) Value assumed by Fellows, 2000 Unit 8 MW/km2 2 MW 60 m 90 % 5–40 km 40 m 1433-2324 $/kW The factor of 1.3 is based on an assumed increase in turbine size and therefore in wind speed at higher hub height and a larger power density. The latter can be assumed because the current power densities are already exceeding the level assumed by Fellows. In addition, it was assumed that the cost can be reduced by 40% because of economies of scale and learning by doing and the increased output per wind farm. The factor 40% is also according to the annual cost reductions assumed by Fellows, 2000. Table 9 provides an overview of planned and installed European off- shore wind farms to show that current wind farms have already lower investment costs and higher power density than assumed by Fellows, 2000. 21PDF Image | REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network
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