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3.5.1 Technical potential The total currently installed PV capacity is 1.7 GWe worldwide (2005) (REN21, 2006). This is limited compared to other renewable energy sources as hydropower or wind. However, the tech- nical potential of solar PV is large as per unit of area the output of solar PV is relatively high compared to other renewable energy sources. The technical potential depends on the land area available and the solar irradiation. On a global scale two studies are available that assess the tech- nical potential of solar PV for both centralized and decentralized applications on the longer term and include the costs of solar PV, Hofman et al., 2002 and Hoogwijk, 2004. In addition, global numbers are presented in the World Energy Assessment (UNDP/WEC, 2000) and by Johansson et al., 2004. Both Hofman et al. and Hoogwijk consider the technical potential at grid cell level based on solar irradiation, land use exclusion factors and assumptions on future efficiencies. Hofman et al. focus on the year 2020 and do not include all countries. Hoogwijk focuses on the longer term, i.e. 2050. Hoogwijk is slightly more optimistic on the future potential of solar PV, partly because higher ef- ficiencies have been assumed, a higher land use suitability factor is used and no land area is ex- cluded because of limited solar radiation, and it was assumed that the area is completely used for solar modules, e.g. no space factor was included. The figures presented here are based on the data from Hoogwijk but have been corrected with a factor of 0.6 to correct for the more optimistic as- sumptions compared to other studies, e.g. as no space factor was applied. As a result, the numbers are comparable to values from World Energy Assessment (UNDP/WEC, 2000) and assumptions by Hofman et al., 2002 but are based on the regional distribution based on detailed irradiation data. The original assumptions are presented in Table 10. 3.5.2 Cost of Electricity The costs of solar PV are also estimated by Hoogwijk, 2004. The cost distribution is assumed to be only a function of the solar irradiation. All technical parameters and costs are assumed to be equal among all regions. The assumptions are presented in Table 10. 23PDF Image | REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network
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