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3.6 Solar CSP 3.6.1 Technical potential Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants are categorized according to whether the solar flux is concentrated by parabolic trough-shaped mirror reflectors, central tower receivers requiring nu- merous heliostats, or parabolic dish-shaped reflectors. The receivers transfer the solar heat to a working fluid, which in turn transfers it to a thermal power conversion system based on Rankine, Brayton, combined or Stirling cycles. Currently, about 600 MWe has been installed worldwide, but various large projects are under construction (Molenbroek, 2006). The technical potential for concentration solar power on a global scale is only assessed by Hof- man et al., 2002. The data cover most of the world, expect Canada, Norway and Switzerland. However, it is expected that the potential for CSP is limited in these three countries. The technical potential for solar CSP for North Africa and the Mediterranean countries is assessed by the Ger- man Aerospace Center (DLR) (2005). The technical potential in this study is much higher com- pared to what has been assessed by Hofman et al., 2002 for these regions (about a factor 20). This is mainly caused by the assumption on the land availability. Both studies have excluded land use functions as urban area, mountainous areas and natural reserves. Furthermore, both studies have limited the areas to areas with high direct irradiation only. In addition to this, Hofman et al., have also excluded agricultural and forestry areas and have assumed that due to socio-geographical reasons, the remaining land area is available for 5%. To be consistent with the assessments for the other renewable energy sources, in which socio- geographical considerations have been taken into account, it was decided to use the data from Hofman as a basis. However, we have assumed a slightly higher figure on the technical potential for the year 2050 (increase with a factor of 4) because of increased efficiency (e.g. from 18% in 2020 to about 25% in 2050) and because the data by Hofman had been corrected for the capacity factor which we consider not needed. In addition, one may consider a larger availability of areas as the assumption of 5% land area available after already excluding most constraint areas was considered conservative compared to other studies. The overall assumptions on the technical and economic assumptions are presented in Table 11. 3.6.2 Cost of Electricity The cost of electricity generated from CSP is assessed to be lower than solar electricity from PV. For the analysis here we have used the cost curves on a regional level as assessed by Hofman et al., 2002, corrected for the longer term. The main assumptions are reported in Table 11. However, for the final figures we incorporated feedback from experts who asserted that the costs of CSP are underestimated and that current projects have cost of around 15 cents per kWh. To take this feed- 26PDF Image | REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network
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