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3.9.3 Tidal energy Total worldwide potential is estimated to be about 500–1000 TWh/yr (1.8 – 3.6 EJ/y), though only a fraction of this energy is likely to be exploited due to economic constraints (Pelc and Fu- jita, 2002). This value is about a factor 20 lower compared to the values presented as theoretical potential in the World Energy Assessment. Fridleifsson (2001) estimates current and future costs for tidal to be between 8-15 ¢/kWh. IEA (2005) estimates that cost in 2050 are around 9 ¢/kWh. Based on these literature sources we as- sume that 75% of the technical potential can be achieved at costs below 10 ¢/kWh in 2050 and the remaining potential at costs below 20 ¢/kWh. 3.9.4 Osmotic power The global discharge of fresh water to seas is about 44.500 km3 per year. If it is assumed that 20% of this discharge can be used for osmotic power production, the global potential is roughly 2000 TWhe (7 EJ/y). This is about 10% of the theoretical potential assessed in the World Energy Assessment (UNDP/WEC, 2000). Present cost estimates made by Statkraft3 show that osmotic power generation can be developed to be cost competitive with renewable power sources such as bio power and tidal power when commercialized around 2015. We assume that 50% of potential can be achieved at costs below 10 ct/kWh and the other 50% at costs below 20 ¢/kWh in 2050 3.9.5 Results Figure 12 shows the aggregated results for ocean energy. It can be seen that next to Asia, North America also has a large potential. 3 http://192.107.92.31/test/owemes/35.pdf 32

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