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As was the case for the U.S. market, the Commission relied on the EIA for data on global hydropower capacity, and estimates from B&V for the share of services in a hydropower project to estimate the size of the global hydropower services market (table 5.7).41 China was the largest market for EPC services in 2010, given its significant installation of new capacity that year, followed by Brazil, India, and Turkey. The market for O&M services (both fixed and variable) was dominated by China, Europe, Brazil, the United States, and Canada, reflecting those countries’ well-established hydropower resources. TABLE 5.7 Estimated market for hydropower-related services based on existing large and small hydropower projects, by region and selected country, 2010a Hydropower capacity (total) 2009–10 Estimated size of project development services market 23,310.0 1,482.6 1,341.9 1,062.6 606.9 410.6 322.4 84.0 31.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 31,674.0 Estimated size of fixed O&M services market Million $ 3,285.0 1,210.5 237.5 609.2 335.4 1,123.5 1,182.4 249.4 273.4 0.2 703.1 415.2 13,763.2 Estimated size of variable O&M services market 6,100.6 2,248.1 441.0 1,131.3 622.9 2,086.5 2,195.8 463.1 507.8 0.4 1,305.7 771.0 25,559.8 Country 2009 China 196,800 2010 MW 219,000 80,703 15,831 40,610 22,362 74,901 78,825 16,624 18,229 15 46,873 27,677 917,544 growth 22,200 1,412 1,278 1,012 578 391 307 80 30 0 0 (511) 30,166 Brazil Turkey India Japan Canada United States Sweden France Venezuela Russia Norway World (all hydro) World (small hydropower only, rated at ≤50 MW 79,291 14,553 39,598 21,784 74,510 78,518 16,544 18,199 15 46,873 28,188 887,378 capacity) Sources: Capacity data: EIA, International Energy Statistics, http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=7; (accessed March 20, 2013); calculations by the Commission. Information on share of services is from B&V, “Cost Estimates and Performance Data,” 2012, 34–5. Note: Figures for the market for project development services include estimates of EPC and owners’ costs, and are based on the annual market for one year’s new construction. Owners’ costs primarily include services such as feasibility studies, environmental impact studies, resource assessments, and permitting and other legal costs. Figures for the market for fixed and variable O&M services are based on the cumulative reported capacity for each market. Figures for small hydropower projects are based on those in the BNEF database, which likely does not include all global small hydropower projects and should be seen as a base (floor) estimate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that annual O&M costs range from $5 to $20/MWh for new medium to large hydropower plants, and approximately twice as much for small hydropower.42 The Commission’s estimates of the O&M market are 41 Even though B&V estimates apply to a hydropower plant located in the United States, this study uses the same estimates for the global market because detailed cost breakdowns are not available for all countries. The Commission excluded construction labor costs from its estimates because for most projects, construction workers are hired locally, at local labor rates, which vary dramatically by country. These services are unlikely to be performed by non-local companies, and it is highly unlikely that foreign construction labor comprises a significant export market for U.S. service providers. It is likely that EPC and owners’ costs will also vary by country, but less so than labor costs. As noted earlier, for O&M services, B&V estimated average costs in 2010 for a 500 MW plant in the United States to be $15/kW-yr in fixed costs and $6/MWh in variable costs. 42 This varies somewhat from the B&V estimates used above. The Commission uses the B&V to estimate the market size for services in this chapter because B&V provides a breakdown of costs between services and goods. IEA, Renewable Energy: Markets and Prospects by Technology, 2011, 28. 22,471 23,676 1,205 1,265.3 355.1 659.5 5-15PDF Image | Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments
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