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slightly higher than the high end of the range provided by the IEA. According to one industry representative, O&M costs are generally calculated as 1–2 percent of annual revenue, which depends on the plant load factor.43 This factor is different for all sites and ranges from 30 to 70 percent for most projects.44 Factors affecting initial investment costs and the return on investment include the project scale, which can range from over 10,000 MW to less than 0.1 MW; the project location; the costs of site preparation and materials; the presence and size of existing reservoirs; the use of the power supplied, whether for baseload or peak load or both; and whether a project is designed to handle functions other than electricity generation, such as flood control, irrigation, or freshwater supply.45 Factors Affecting Global Supply and Demand for Hydropower Services There is significant global development potential for new hydropower generation capacity, which would bring with it demand for hydro-related services. Global installed hydropower capacity has grown by an average of more than 24 GW annually in recent years, reaching close to 1,000 GW at the end of 2012. Total capacity is expected to reach 1,300 GW in 2017, also implying strong growth in the market for related services. Given the long lead times for developing hydropower projects, these figures represent capacity that is currently under construction and is virtually certain to come on line. Global hydropower capacity will increase by approximately 180 GW by 2020 if projects currently under construction proceed as planned, an increase of one-fourth of currently installed capacity. One‐third of this increase is expected to come from China alone, followed by Turkey, Brazil, and India.46 Despite these promising numbers, hydropower developers must face diverse problems at different stages of their projects. These include the rising cost of construction, including increasing costs for some raw materials; increasing social and environmental opposition to new hydropower projects; and the costs of security for staff and property.47 Global Industry Trends The IEA forecasts global installed hydropower capacity of 1,947 GW by 2050, nearly twice the current level but a less certain estimate than that for 2020. At that level, generation of hydroelectricity would near 7,100 TWh, doubling the power currently generated and substantially increasing the market for related services. Ten countries (China, the United States, Russia, Brazil, Canada, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 43 Plant load factor represents the output produced by actual operation of a given site, relative to its maximum capacity. So, for a 20 MW capacity project, a plant with a 30 percent load factor would generate an average of 6 MW of electricity over time, while a plant with a 70 percent load factor would generate an average of 14 MW over time. The actual load factor for a given plant depends on specific site conditions and the equipment chosen for the site. 44 Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, February 6, 2013. According to another analysis, compared with large hydropower, the cost per installed kW tends to be higher because in most cases, small hydropower sites have low water heads (meaning that the water drops only a small distance); costs per kW decrease rapidly as head increases. At about 15 m, the rate of decrease levels out and, eventually, the cost stabilizes. ESHA, “State of the Art of Small Hydropower, 9 (accessed April 1, 2013). 45 IEA, Renewable Energy: Markets and Prospects by Technology, 2011, 28. 46 IEA, 2012 Hydropower Roadmap, 2012, 18-24; REN21, Renewables 2013 Global Status Report, 2013, 93. 47 Industry representative, telephone interview with USITC staff, Beijing, May 17, 2013. 5-16PDF Image | Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments
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