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Regional Profiles Asia and Latin America are expected to experience the most rapid growth in hydroelectricity generation in coming years, leading to overall growth in those regions in the market for related services. In Africa and Europe, some growth in small hydropower projects is expected, but rapid growth of large hydropower projects is less likely. Latin America There was at least 8.4 GW of installed small hydropower capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean at the end of 2011, or 2.8 percent of total installed power capacity in the region.66 Small hydropower accounted for a particularly large share of the renewable energy portfolio in certain countries, including Belize (39 percent), Honduras (9 percent), Peru (6 percent) and Ecuador (6 percent). With 241 MW of capacity, small hydropower represented 10 percent of total installed hydropower capacity in Guatemala, and had attracted $152.5 million in new capital at the end of 2011.67 Brazil has a larger amount of installed small hydropower capacity (5,339 MW) but it represents a lower overall share of power (4 percent).68 In Chile, there is a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that includes small hydro, but only for projects rated at 20 MW or less. For large hydropower companies, such projects are not economically sound, but smaller companies are reportedly more interested in developing small hydropower projects in Chile.69 Brazil’s 2009 national energy plan shows the country’s small hydropower capacity doubling to 9 GW by 2030, and all hydropower almost doubling, relative to 2010, to 150 GW.70 However, according to industry representatives, small hydropower projects are generally not competitive with either large hydropower or other renewable energy sources, particularly wind. In recent years, Brazil has held reverse auctions for renewable energy development, which set a cap for the price paid for energy. Small hydropower from newly developed projects has not been cost competitive compared with other renewables because the cost of the civil works (dam construction) has grown tremendously in recent years, now accounting for about 70 percent of project costs. Labor costs and concrete prices are very high in Brazil, as is construction risk, making it more difficult for small hydropower projects to recoup their investment. However, costs are significantly lower for new hydropower capacity coming online from retrofitting and modernizing existing dams.71 According to one industry representative, the future of small hydropower in Brazil will depend on government policies that support small hydropower, which is competitive only at rates of 140 reais/MWh ($61.50/MWh), compared with large hydropower, which is competitive at rates of 70 reais/MWh ($30.75/MWh). 72 Recently, new hydropower capacity has been split between new large hydropower projects (83 percent), modernization and upgrades of existing large hydropower projects (6 percent) and new small hydropower projects (10 percent).73 66 BNEF, Climatescope 2012, 6. 67 Ibid., 38, 60, 68, 76, 96. 68 Brazil relies on large hydro facilities for 67 percent of its power. BNEF, Climatescope 2012, 43. 69 Industry representative, interview with USITC staff, Santiago, Chile, May 15, 2013. 70 REN21, Renewables 2013, 2013, 51. 71 Industry representatives, interviews with USITC staff, São Paulo, May 9 and 10, 2013. 72 Industry representatives, interviews with USITC staff, São Paulo, May 8 and 9, 2013. 73 Industry representative, interview with USITC staff, São Paulo, May 9, 2013. 5-21PDF Image | Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments
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