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maintaining those plants.102 As shown in table 5.12, the U.S. market for geothermal- related project development costs was estimated to be $34.3 million in 2010, and the market for variable O&M services was estimated at $594 million.103 TABLE 5.12 Estimated U.S. market for geothermal-related energy services based on existing capacity, 2010 Country United States North America World US share of North America US share of world Geothermal power capacity 2009–10 Estimated size of project development services market Estimated size of variable O&M services market 2009 2,381.9 3,346.9 9,892.8 71.2% Performance Data for Renewable Electricity Technologies,” 2012; and calculations by the Commission. Notes: Figures for the market for project development services include estimates of EPC and owners’ costs, and are based on the annual market for one year’s new construction. Owners’ costs primarily include services such as feasibility studies, environmental impact studies, resource assessments, and permitting and other legal costs. Figures for the market for variable O&M services are based on the cumulative reported capacity for each market. According to B&V, fixed O&M costs for geothermal are zero, although other sources do quote fixed O&M costs for geothermal plants. Since the estimates in this chapter rely on B&V, we do not cite fixed O&M costs here. North America includes the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Factors Affecting U.S. Supply and Demand for Geothermal Power and Related Services Factors affecting the development of geothermal energy in the U.S. market are primarily found on the supply side, due to the relatively high development and capital costs of geothermal projects. These include advances in technology, government incentives and regulations, transmission access, project lead times, and the price of electricity and alternative fuels. 102 According to an industry observer, O&M services in the global geothermal power industry are usually provided by utility companies or independent power producers (IPPs). Few independent service providers are active in this service area. Industry observer, interview by USITC staff, Washington, DC, December 19, 2012. 103 The Commission estimated the size of the market for project development-related geothermal energy services based on a constant share of total development costs for new projects, multiplied by the total of new capacity developed in the most recent data year (2010). In order to estimate the size of the market, the Commission relied on data for global geothermal capacity from the EIA, and estimates of the share of services in a geothermal project, for both development and O&M services, from B&V. According to B&V estimates, EPC costs are approximately 8 percent of total project costs, and owners’ costs (primarily services such as feasibility studies, environmental impact studies, resource assessments, and permitting and other legal costs) are approximately 17 percent of total project costs, so about 25 percent of total project costs are likely to be services. This estimate does not include the costs of materials and labor for actual plant and civil works construction, which vary significantly, based on geothermal resources and particular site characteristics, but does include construction management and project management costs. For O&M services, B&V estimated average costs in 2010 to be $31/MWh in variable costs, with zero fixed O&M costs. Industry representative, telephone interview with Commission staff, March 14, 2013; EIA, International Energy Statistics, http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=7 (accessed March 20, 2013); calculations by the Commission. Information on share of services is from B&V, “Cost Estimates and Performance Data,” 2012, 35. 2010 MW 2,405.0 growth 23.1 Million $ 34.3 594.3 3,370.0 10,104.9 71.4% 23.8% 23.1 212.1 100.0% 10.9% 34.3 315.0 100.0% 10.9% 832.8 2,497.1 71.4% 23.8% 24.1% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Annual Energy Review 2011,” 2012; B&V, “Cost Estimates and 5-27PDF Image | Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments
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