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Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments

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Renewable Energy and Related Services: Recent Developments ( renewable-energy-and-related-services-recent-developments )

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Global geothermal power capacity grew by a modest 136 MW in 2011. This growth came entirely from three countries: Iceland (90 MW), Nicaragua (36 MW), and the United States (10 MW). While growth was modest in 2011, it is expected to accelerate with projects under development in traditional markets, emerging markets, and new markets in developing economies, such as Rwanda and countries elsewhere in East Africa.119 Indeed, most of the untapped growth potential lies in developing countries and emerging markets, especially those with significant proven untapped conventional geothermal resources, such as Chile.120 By some estimates, global installed geothermal capacity is expected to grow by roughly 6–13 GW by 2021. 121 These long-run scenarios offer sizable opportunities for geothermal energy service providers. As was the case for hydropower, the Commission relied on the EIA for data on global geothermal capacity, and estimates from B&V for the share of services in a geothermal power project to estimate the size of the global geothermal services market (table 5.15).122 New Zealand and Italy installed the most new geothermal power capacity in 2010, so had the largest markets for services related to project development. The United States and the Philippines had the most installed geothermal capacity, and thus the largest markets for geothermal O&M services. Factors Affecting Global Supply and Demand for Geothermal Services Factors affecting the development of geothermal energy are primarily supply-side due to the relatively high development and capital costs of geothermal energy projects. Particularly important are advances in technology, which are making the development of geothermal energy production feasible in new countries. Government policies, including aggressive geothermal energy targets, renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), and feed-in tariffs (FITs), are also helping to facilitate the sector’s growth, especially in emerging markets and developing countries.123 One particular problem for geothermal power, as opposed to solar and wind, is identifying the extent of existing geothermal resources. As in the case of oil and gas, developers must drill wells to verify that resources exist, and only a minority of the wells are successful, making the exploration process both risky and expensive. In one effort to overcome this problem, the government of Indonesia has instituted a geothermal energy funding facility which funds exploratory activities through local governments, aiming to 119 Ibid., 40–41. 120 Recent trends in geothermal energy investment (discussed below) have underscored the importance of emerging markets and developing countries when it comes to growth in the geothermal energy market. Industry observer, interview by USITC staff, Washington, DC, December 19, 2012; GEA, Geothermal: International Market Overview Report, May 2012. 121 Taylor, “East Africa in Global Geothermal,” November 23, 2012. 122 Even though B&V estimates apply to a geothermal power plant located in the United States, the Commission uses the same estimates for the global market because detailed cost breakdowns are not available for all countries. The estimates exclude construction labor costs because for most projects, construction workers are hired locally, at local labor rates, which vary dramatically by country. These services are unlikely to be performed by non-local companies, and it is highly unlikely that foreign construction labor comprises a significant export market for U.S. service providers. EPC and owners’ costs are also expected to vary by country, but less so than labor costs. As noted earlier, for O&M services, B&V estimates average variable O&M costs of $31/MWh for a standard hydrothermal power plant in the United States in 2010, with zero fixed O&M costs. 123 REN21, Renewables 2012, 2012. 5-31

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