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3. Markets: current status and outlook to 2030 The share of heat across all sectors is estimated to be between 40-50% of total final energy demand (Philibert, 2006). This includes cooking and high-temperature process heat for industry. Most of this heat currently comes from fossil fuels, which indicates that there could be a significant market potential for displacement by REHC technologies. Of the total energy consumption used in buildings and for appliances, around 55% is used for space heating and a further 20% for water heating (IEA, 2006b). In 2004, 35% of total global final energy consumption occurred in commercial, public and residential buildings which was more than in the industry (32%) and transport (26%) sectors (IEA, 2006b). The data availability for REHC markets is generally limited due to decentralized heat generation facilities and the associated problems of measurement. Taking bioenergy as an example, due to the wide dispersion of large and small scale burners and boilers, it is not easy to ascertain the total installed heat capacity, even though the name-plates on the appliances usually provide such information. Even more difficult is assessing for how long each boiler is actually operational when providing useful heat and whether it is working at full capacity or not. Whether a burner or boiler is operated for 10, 100, or 8 000 hours a year can only be found from a detailed survey of users since, unlike electricity or transport fuels, metering of the heat output rarely occurs. Except in the case of district heating, there is little commercial trade in heat. For heat from solar and geothermal sources, the IEA Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) and Geothermal implementing agreements have collected data based on an assessment of installed capacity for several IEA and non-IEA countries. What data there is available for commercially distributed biomass heat is included in IEA statistics but it is far from complete. Current market status Solar thermal Solar drying of crops and timber is common worldwide, either by using natural processes or by concentrating the heat in specially designed storage buildings. No attempt has been made to assess the market for these technologies in this report since data is not available. Similarly passive solar space heating has been excluded, leaving emphasis on solar water heating. For water heating, the annual incremental growth in global installed capacity of solar thermal systems has increased significantly each year from 1999 till 2005 (Figure 12) to reach close to 90 GWth total installed capacity in 2005 (Figure 13; REN21 2006). Accounting for retirements, over 15 GWth of new capacity was added in 2006 increasing total installation capacity by 16 % to 102 GWth excluding unglazed solar swimming pool heaters (REN 21, 2007). When these are included, total capacity reached 110 GWth in 2005 providing around 200 PJ of heat (SHC, 2007). China had the greatest increase in solar hot water capacity in 2005 with Europe increasing by more than 1.8 GWth and India and several other countries also experiencing accelerated growth. For solar thermal water heating, regional capacity growth varies each year. China has experienced fairly consistent growth and has by far the largest market, with around 60% of total global capacity installed (Figure 13) (Philibert, 2006; REN21, 2006). In Turkey solar thermal collectors to provide domestic hot water are popular mainly because they are the cheapest option due to relatively high commercial energy prices for conventional heating sources and high solar insolation inputs. 45PDF Image | RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND COOLING
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