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Projections to 2030 Policies for the support of renewable energy to abate GHG emissions and increase security of supply are currently being developed in many countries. The Alternative Policy scenario (APS) of the IEA 2006 World Energy Outlook included projections for renewable energy technologies (IEA, 2006f). It assumed all the policies currently under consideration will have been implemented by 2030. The use of heat from renewables in the industry and building sectors was assumed to increase 20% by 2030 relative to 2003. More ambitious policies to be developed in future could boost the share of REHC technologies even further beyond these projected levels. Deepening the analysis to assess the potential uptake of REHC is possible, particularly if better data relating to heating and cooling demand becomes available. Heat from solar thermal collectors in the APS was projected to increase from approximately 280 PJ to 3000 PJ in the period 2003 – 2030 due to the rapidly growing installed capacity (Figure 26). Figure 26 Deployment of solar thermal collectors in terms of energy outputs projected out to 2030 by region Mtoe/yr 70 60 50 India 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: IEA, 2006f. 1Mtoe = 42 PJ. China OECD Pacific OECD North America OECD Europe 57 In the APS a shift towards more efficient bioenergy technologies by 2030 was expected with CHP electricity generation quadrupling from 121 TWh/yr in 2003 to 539 TWh/yr by 2030 with a comparable increase in available heat (Figure 27). Special attention was paid to the uncertainties of biomass supplies due to their sustainability and competing uses for them for electricity, biofuels, materials, food and fibre as well as for heating. The potential for integrated processes relying on biomass was also considered. Figure 27 Electricity from bioenergy CHP in 2004 (225 TWh total) and projections to 2030 (983 TWh total) by region 2004 Others 2030 Africa Latin America India China OECD Pacific OECD North America OECD Europe Others Africa Latin America Source: IEA, 2006f.PDF Image | RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND COOLING
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