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58 150 100 50 0 O&M Auxiliary energy Fuel Investment Geothermal heat is projected in the APS to increase from 185 PJ in 2004 to over 1000PJ by 2030, although other estimates indicate that the technical potential for geothermal is about 150 EJ/y for electricity generation and 350 EJ/y for direct heat uses (GIA, 2006). Based on these various estimates of growth in demand for REHC technologies by 2030, the future costs are compared (Figure 28), based on underlying assumptions as detailed in Annex A. It was assumed that 25% price increases in real terms will occur for conventional energy supplies over this period. Figure 28 Cost breakdowns and ranges (excluding VAT) in 2030 for a selection of REHC systems compared with the reference energy price range (shaded bar) for gas, coal and electricity heat energy carriers for the domestic (top of range bar) and industrial (bottom of bar) sectors 2005€/GJ 170 Solar thermal heating Solar thermal cooling Biomass pellet heating Biomass CHP Biomass anaerobic digestion CHP Biomass waste to energy CHP Deep Deep geothermal geothermal conventional advanced (partly CHP) CHP Shallow geothermal (heat only) Shallow geothermal heating and cooling: heat costs Shallow geothermal heating and cooling: cooling costs Notes: The conventional energy carrier costs are only based on fuel costs and conversion losses because investment and depreciation costs of appliances per GJ of heat are very small. Neither reference system nor avoided costs due to fuel savings are incorporated. Installation costs are included but costs for heat distribution and allocated to electricity generation for CHP technologies are not. Details of cost assumptions are given in Annex A. Based on the assumptions made (Annex A), conventional energy prices in real terms are projected to increase by 2030 (partly due to carbon taxes) whereas the costs of REHC technologies could decline considerably by that time due to further learning experience, particularly for the technologies currently at an early stage of development (Figure 10). This however could be partially offset by the future prices of materials such as steel and aluminium.PDF Image | RENEWABLES FOR HEATING AND COOLING
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