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Introduction In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), economic output is projected to grow by about 3% annually into the foreseeable future, supported by population growth and improvements in quality of life. This will require the region to nearly double its installed power capacity to about 600 GW by 2030, at a cost of close to 430 billion dollars.7 This represents a challenge to the region’s energy model but also an opportunity to redefine and transform it. Current plans in some countries in the region consider that a substantial share of the new demand could be met with fossil fuels, with hydropower providing much of the remainder. However, fossil fuels -the main source of energy worldwide- are driving climate change toward dangerous thresholds.8 A sustainable future (“the future we want”, as posited by the United Nations Conference in Sustainable Development -UNCSD) requires an urgent change of path possible only if a major departure from the business as usual (BaU) scenario is achieved, capable of preventing global temperature from escalating much further than 2 degrees Celsius (°C) this century. A global climate stabilization goal of this magnitude would require of no more than 20 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 to be emitted by 2050 (a significant deviation from the current projection of 45 Gt of CO2) and no more than 10 Gt of CO2 by the end of the century. Under current population growth projections, this implies an average annual per capita emission of 2 tons by mid-century equivalent to less than 40% of current emission levels.9 For the region, fortunately, an alternative energy path is available that is consistent with these goals. Starting from a relatively clean supply base (LAC’s installed power capacity is estimated at about 325 GW, the majority of which, 52%, is already provided through renewable energy resources, including hydropower10), non-traditional renewable energy technologies (NRETs) —solar, wind, geothermal, ocean, small-scale hydropower, and advanced bio-energy—together with improvements in energy efficiency—are now ready to play a major role alongside hydropower in meeting LAC countries’ energy needs. The costs of these technologies are falling rapidly, and in many cases are competitive with fossil fuels. LAC’s unusually rich renewable resource base may place the region’s renewable energy (RE) generation costs at the lower end of the global cost spectrum, a fact particularly significant given that these sources are currently providing electricity that is less expensive than that generated by fossil fuels in other parts of the world.11 And this can be done with additional and substantial economic, social and environmental benefits (societal) benefits. Globally, the scale of recent developments in renewable energy suggests that a historic energy transformation is underway. NRETs —assembled in large power plants as well as widely decentralized small systems— are rapidly diversifying the energy economies of many nations. Some industrial nations, including Germany and Denmark and others such as Mexico, Uruguay, Costa Rica and China, are well on Rethinking our energy future p. 5PDF Image | White Paper on Renewable Energy for the 3GFLAC
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