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Resource Endowment for NRETs for Power Generation in LAC Power demand LAC generated 1.3 PWh14 in 2010, close to 7% of the world’s total electricity production (20.2 PWh)15, representing an increase of about 50% since 2000 (Figure 1). Meanwhile, the region had 325 GW of installed capacity in 2010, or 6.4% of total global installed electric capacity (5.07 TW).16 However, the demand for electricity in the region is projected to increase to 3.5 PWh by 2050.17 Using data from the GEA Model of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the IDB estimates that, under a business-as-usual scenario, LAC power demand will nearly triple to about 3.5 PWh (Figure 1) while the carbon emissions of the power sector are expected to double from current levels by 2050 (from 0.25 GtCO2e/yr to 0.54 GtCO2e/yr).18 This implies a continuing high share for the use of non-fossil based power generation as well as substantial improvements in energy efficiency but still places the region under a projected net increase in emissions. Figure 1. Demand for electric power, LAC, 1990-2050 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 3.452 2.657 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 630 1990 1.004 1.618 1.370 2.049 Source: Historical data from British Petroleum Annual Statistical Review of World Energy 2012. Projections to 2050 from IIASA’s GEA Model Database. Data for 2010 is the average of BP (1,373 TWh) and IIASA (1,269.8 TWh). One thousand (1,000) TWh equals 1 petawatt hour (PWh). While coal and oil currently have only minor roles in the LAC power matrix, both of these fossil fuels are projected to disappear completely by 2050, even under the IIASA business-as-usual scenario. The share of fossil fuels in the generation mix is nevertheless expected to increase from 37% to 40% (peaking at 42% in 2030), mainly because the share of natural gas is expected to rise from 24% to 41% by 2050. Indeed, beyond 2030, expanded natural gas begins to compete with NRETs and large hydropower within the generation mix. This significant expansion of natural gas within the LAC power mix, expected under the BaU trajectory, is what accounts for the projected doubling in LAC power sector emissions. Indeed, hydropower’s share of the LAC electricity mix is also projected to fall from 56% in 2010 to 36% in 2050. Rethinking our energy future p. 7 TWhPDF Image | White Paper on Renewable Energy for the 3GFLAC
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