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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 The total energy contained in the Earth is of the order of 12.6 x 1012 EJ and that of the crust of the 2 order of 5.4 x 109 EJ to depths of up to 50 km (Dickson and Fanelli, 2003 and 2004). The main 3 sources of this energy are due to the heat flow from the earth’s core and mantle, and that generated 4 by the continuous decay of radioactive isotopes in the crust itself. Heat is transferred from the 5 interior towards the surface, mostly by conduction, at an average of 0.065 W/m2 on land and 0.1 6 W/m2 through the ocean floor. The result is a global average temperature gradient of 25-30°C/km 7 and a total terrestrial heat flow rate of 44 TWt (1400 EJ/year). 8 Within a 10 km depth under the continents (reachable with current drilling technology) the stored 9 thermal energy is of the order of 40 x 107 EJ (EPRI, 1978). Within 5 km depth the energy was 10 estimated to be 14 x 107 EJ (WEC, 1994). In addition to the stored energy, the average thermal 11 energy recharge rate from below 5 km depth (ignoring volcanic eruptions) is about 315 EJ/year 12 (Stefansson, 2005). Based on those considerations, the overall theoretical potential for geothermal 13 resources can be estimated to be almost 42 x 106 EJ (EPRI, 1978; Table 4.2). 14 More recent assessments reinforce these expectations. In a MIT-led assessment, the US stored 15 geothermal energy was estimated to be 14 x 106 EJ with a technically extractable capacity of about 16 1200 GWe to depths of 10 km (see Tables 3.2 and 3.3 in Tester et al., 2006).The US Geological 17 Survey (2008) estimated mean electric power generation potential from identified and undiscovered 18 EGS resources in the western US alone is 518 GWe. Also for Australia, Budd et al. (2008) 19 estimated that recovery of just 1% of the geothermal energy stored from 150°C to 5 km in the 20 Australian continental crust corresponds to 190,000 EJ. Based on these estimates, available resource 21 is clearly not a limiting factor for geothermal deployment globally. 22 Recovery of geothermal energy utilises only a portion of the stored thermal energy due to 23 limitations in rock permeability that permit heat extraction through fluid circulation, and to the 24 minimum temperature limits for utilization at a given site. To calculate an effective technical 25 potential it is necessary to exclude the heat which cannot be accessed at drillable depths or is 26 insufficiently hot for practical use. Global utilisation has so far concentrated on areas in which 27 geological conditions, such as natural fractures and porous formations, permit water or steam to 28 transfer the heat nearer to the surface, thus giving rise to convecting hydrothermal resources where 29 drilling at up to 4 km depth can access fluids at temperatures of 180°C to more than 350°C. 30 A statistical analysis (Goldstein, 2010) of stored geothermal energy to depths of 5 km (WEC, 1994) 31 and 10 km (ESPRI, 1978) assumes 0.5% and 20% as the minimum and maximum recovery factors, 32 respectively. This assessment concludes the global technical recoverable continental geothermal 33 energy resource is in the order of 9 x 106 EJ to 5 km and 27 x 106 EJ to 10 km, with a 7% (statistical 34 mean) recovery of stored heat. Both estimates are conservative in the context of sustainable level 35 for development (42 x 106 EJ, EPRI, 1978; Table 4.2). 36 From the distribution of geothermal resources over different temperature regimes, Stefansson 37 (2005) estimated the low temperature potential (for direct use or binary-cycle electricity) to be 153 38 EJ/year (5 TWt). The combined high and low temperature technical potential (about 800 EJ/year) is 39 approximately the same order of magnitude as the natural heat recharge of the underground 40 resources. 41 For hydrothermal submarine resources, an estimation of 130 GWe off-shore technical potential has 42 been made (Hiriart et al., 2010). This is based on the 3900 km of ocean ridges already confirmed as 43 having hydrothermal vents and with the assumption that only 1% could be developed for electricity 44 production with a recovery factor of 4%. 45 Stefansson (2005) concluded that the most likely value for the technical potential of known, 46 onshore, hydrothermal resources capable of use for electricity generation (T>130°C) is 209 (±27) 47 GWe. This value is supported by a statistical correlation between the numbers of active land-based Do Not Cite or Quote 6 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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