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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy

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Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy ( chapter-4-geothermal-energy )

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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 volcanoes (1322 in total) and identified geothermal resources in well-explored regions. However, 2 theoretical considerations based on well-explored regions of the USA and Iceland reveal that the 3 magnitude of hidden hydrothermal resources is expected to be 5-10 times larger than this estimate 4 of identified resources (Bertani, 2009). 5 The global geothermal technical potential can be estimated to be almost 30 EJ/y for electricity 6 generation and almost 631 EJ/y for direct utilisation (Bertani, 2009). Technical potential for 7 geothermal-electricity, including EGS, is equivalent to 1000 GWe (1 TWe) of installed capacity 8 assuming an average capacity factor of 0.95, and to 8,322 TWh/y of electric generation. The 9 technical potential for geothermal direct uses is equivalent to 50,000 GWt (50 TWt) of installed 10 capacity, assuming an average capacity factor of 0.40 (Table 4.2 and Fig. 4.1). 11 A comparison of estimates of global geothermal economic potential published by different authors 12 (Bertani, 2003) reveals that the projections are very scattered, due to differences in assumptions and 13 uncertainties in energy recovery factors, economic viability and assumed rates of learning in all 14 areas (exploration, drilling, stimulation, and energy conversion) as deployment proceeds. 15 Nevertheless, a thorough review concludes that geothermal electricity economic potential (by 16 2050) from identified geothermal reservoirs is realistically estimated to range between a minimum 17 of 35 GWe, a median of 70 GWe, and a maximum of 160 GWe (Figure 4.1), depending on 18 assumptions regarding technology improvement, development incentives or constraints that may be 19 in effect over the next 40 years (Bertani, 2009; Fridleifsson et al., 2009; Rybach, 2010; Mongillo, 20 2009; Mongillo et al., 2010). The median value represents an annual compounding growth rate of 21 5% over 40 years and is considered to be economically realisable using present day technology. The 22 maximum value (more than twice the median) represents an annual growth rate of 7% and is also 23 economically realisable, but includes the assessed benefits of future financial incentives, and 24 enhanced technologies such as permeability stimulation and deeper drilling. 100000.0 10000.0 1000.0 100.0 10.0 1.0 50,000 35 10.6 28.6 265 70 440 1,750 815 800 160 1,00 0 2009 2050 2100 Minimum Median Maximum Economic Potential Installed 2050 2050 Technical Electricity Direct Uses Potential 25 26 Figure 4.1. Estimated global geothermal electricity and direct use economic potentials by 2050 27 and beyond, with assumptions of status-quo growth rates (minimum), present technology (median) 28 and technology improvement (maximum). Data for 2009 direct uses correspond to 2005 (to be 29 ). Technical resource potentials (including inferred but unidentified 30 resources) are also shown (Adapted from Fridleifsson et al., 2008, and Stefansson, 2005). 31 The geothermal-electric economic potential by 2100 was also estimated to be around 24 EJ/y, 32 equivalent to 800 GWe of installed capacity using the same capacity factor of 0.95. Do Not Cite or Quote 7 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09 updated [by AUTHORS] GW electric or thermal

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