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First Order Draft Contribution to Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN) 1 On the basis of the estimates shown in Figure 4.1, it is considered plausible to produce up to 8.3% 2 of the total world electricity by 2100 with onshore geothermal resources (including EGS), serving 3 ~17% of the world population (Bertani, 2009). More than thirty countries (located mostly in Africa, 4 Central/South America, the Pacific and South-East Asia) could potentially obtain 100% of their 5 electricity from a combination of base-load geothermal and variable-load hydro and wind resources. 6 The next issue is to consider the prospective contribution of EGS to the technical and economical 7 potential more carefully. Recognizing that there is very limited operating experience with EGS at a 8 commercial scale, any estimate is by nature speculative. Nonetheless, one should keep in mind that 9 many characteristics and deployment requirements of EGS systems bear similarity to commercial 10 hydrothermal systems. And, if geothermal is to have a large scale impact in off-setting global 11 carbon dioxide emissions in the future, utilization of the EGS resource will be necessary. 12 A statistical analysis by Goldstein et al. (2009) yields a mean forecast for global EGS deployment 13 of 444 GWe (worldwide) by 2050 without any consideration of commercial risks or technical 14 uncertainties. Accounting for these factors, the authors give a more realistic range of 90 to 130 15 GWe by 2050, from which it was estimated that EGS could represent around the half of the 16 maximum of 160 GWe projected by this year (Fig. 4.1). Industrial and governmental co-funding of 17 EGS development aims to make financial investment more attractive based on an increased 18 probability of EGS project success. With this co-funding and appropriate mitigation policy 19 instruments, high grade, hot rock resources are expected to become competitive, as early as 2015. 20 Regarding geothermal direct uses, the economic potential by 2100 is estimated to be 22 EJ/y, 21 equivalent to 1750 GWt of installed capacity with an average capacity factor of 0.40. The economic 22 potential by 2050 is estimated to be between a minimum of 265 GWt, a median of 440 GWt, and a 23 maximum of 815 GWt (Figure 4.1), depending on similar assumptions to those made for estimating 24 the electric potential (Fridleifsson et al., 2008; Rybach, 2010; Mongillo, 2009; Mongillo et al., 25 2010). 26 Potential for increased direct use is very large. Recent likely-case scenario estimates of future direct 27 use indicate that by 2050 the total use could increase to 815 GWt, with a GHP (Geothermal Heat 28 Pumps) contribution of some 740 GWt (90%) (Table 4.9). The dominance and expected significant 29 growth in GHP use arises from their ability to be used for heating, cooling and domestic hot-water 30 applications anywhere on the earth’s surface (Lund et al., 2003; Curtis et al., 2005; Rybach, 2008). 31 4.2.2 Regional resource potential 32 The assessed geothermal theoretical, technical and economic potentials (the latter by 2100), are 33 presented on a regional basis in Table 4.2. The original regional assessment for the theoretical 34 potential was conducted by EPRI in 1978 (EPRI, 1978), with a very detailed estimation of the heat 35 stored inside the first 3 km under the continents, taking into account the average geothermal 36 gradient and the presence of either a diffuse geothermal anomaly or an high enthalpy region, due to 37 the location nearby the plate boundaries. Data from theoretical and technical potentials are taken 38 and adapted from Bertani (2009), regrouping countries and regions into the 10 IEA regions. The 39 economic potential by 2100 is an original estimation. Do Not Cite or Quote 8 of 47 Chapter 4 SRREN_Draft1_Ch04_Version03 22-Dec-09PDF Image | Chapter 4 Geothermal Energy
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